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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/4 (261 comments)

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  •  The immigration EO won't hurt & might help (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, itskevin, JGibson

    The broad public won't give a crap about the immigration EO.  They don't care about immigration, period.

    The only moveable votes that can come from that EO are in immigrant-heavy communities of color, mostly Hispanics.  The conspicuousness of immigration in the federal policymaking news can help us with turnout, but it's far from guaranteed it actually will.  The EO doesn't hurt with anyone who won't vote against us for a million other reasons anyway.

    46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 09:28:22 AM PDT

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    •  I disagree to an extent (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, betelgeux, Midwesterners

      I think it would likely polarize the election around the president, which is exactly what we don't need in Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Kentucky.

      We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

      by James Allen on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 09:31:54 AM PDT

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      •  I just don't see that happening (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        IdahoSocialist

        People don't care about immigration, and this is entirely about immigration.  The GOP might try to make it about something bigger to fit their "lawless" narrative along with their lawsuit, but I'm very skeptical that will gain traction with the voters Landrieu, Pryor, and others need to win.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 09:34:29 AM PDT

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        •  please show me something other (5+ / 0-)

          than your opinion that demonstrates this:

          People don't care about immigration
          particularly the white, right-leaning voters we need in those states who already do not like the president. Otherwise I will just disagree with you.

          We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

          by James Allen on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 09:37:29 AM PDT

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          •  Look at it this way (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Le Champignon

            What exactly will the EO do to dissuade these voters from voting for the Dem?

            I mean we really have to look at it this way, the white right-leaning voters in these states already resent "Obama's amnesty for all immigrants" and "the DREAM Act giving all illegal immigrants free tuition to Harvard" and all the other non-nonsensical gibberish these types here on the talk radio.

            We really do over-state the value of immigration to the GOP...the people who believe Juan Valdez is coming for their job/daughter/country have already made up their mind.  No one is going to develop a new opinion about this regardless of what the EO does.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 09:54:46 AM PDT

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            •  Think Kentucky (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Avedee

              Grimes has to win some voters who don't approve of Obama, white working class voters who, cause its Kentucky, lets face it, have racist tendencies. Right wing radio blaring about illegal immigrant children (now with EBOLA!) being legalized by the black president is liable to turn them to McConnell whom they may not like either.

              Same holds true in Arkansas and Louisiana, possibly even in Iowa. People don't care about immigration until it becomes THE story. An executive order will make it THE story.

          •  I think you are right (0+ / 0-)

            but I wonder how many votes a Dem would actually lose over this.

            I think the issue is a bit complicated even in rural states, because farmer might support some of what Obama will do.

          •  Well here's Polling Report, for one source (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Actually, this of course is a compendium of all recent polling:  http://www.pollingreport.com/...

            In particular one can examine the questions attempting to tease out whether a respondent cares about immigration at all, like if it's "extremely important" or "very important" to voting, or how much of a "priority" immigration legislation should be, or if it makes a respondent "more likely" or "less likely" to vote for someone whose immigration views/vote go a certain way.

            Even those aren't great ways to tease out voting priorities, because I tend to believe people inflate their own subjective concern on an issue out of a feeling they're "supposed" to care about everything.  So I tend to discount people's responses saying something actually matters to them.

            Beyond that, you can see that most respondents are broadly pro-immigration, including that they are overwhelmingly resigned to inclusiveness toward undocumenteds who have established U.S. roots, and also (though less overwhelmingly) toward the recent influx of children.

            The way to look at this is to realize that voters can consider a lot of different issues in deciding who to vote for, but they don't want to consider a lot of issues because they don't care about politics that much...so they distill to a very few things that actually matter to them.  And those very few things, for the non-partisan or soft partisan voter, always center around a combination of personal/family/community self-interest, and personal values.

            Immigration just isn't a matter of self-interest or personal values for a non-partisan or soft partisan voter outside immigrant-heavy communities.  You might have the occasional white voter who is otherwise apolitical but sees him and/or his friends losing jobs to immigrants in a meatpacking plant.  But there aren't many of those, as I know personally from the transformation in my own hometown in Iowa...voting behavior isn't really affected much.

            46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 10:00:18 AM PDT

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        •  It makes Obama the center of attention (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          And to a large extent the Republicans in LA and NC are running against Obama's "overreach" not their opponents because Cassidy is too low-key and Tillis too polarizing to win otherwise. Cotton seems to be falling into the same category.

          But just Republicans are forced to rely on a fallback strategy, doesn't mean it won't work. Jeff Merkley was probably substantially weaker than Gordon Smith, but he managed to win because the state and the year intersected favorably for him.

          I think Immigration is overrated in the short-run by both Democrats(who underestimate the political apathy of a large portion of the potential Hispanic electorate) and Republicans(who overestimate how much people care beyond gut reaction), perhaps more so than any other issue. But an Executive Order plays to a GOP narrative that while it may not be brilliant or impressive, can still conceivably be enough to deliver them wins in Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina in a midterm year.

      •  I think they're strategizing on whether or not (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        to issue the EO now and have Congresspersons at home take heat from their right. This would certainly make it about the President, but it also might push them to begin impeachment or at least shutdown the government in October.

        The risk would be issuing the EO and then the right rattles their sabers but does nothing. Hard to see how the Tea Party and Ted Cruz don't put their money where their mouth is. This could energize their base as much as ours. I think the hope on the D side is energizing that category of voters who might not vote in a midterm.

    •  I really think this is unpredictable (0+ / 0-)

      I wouldn't assume things, either way.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 08:06:58 PM PDT

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