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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/14 (372 comments)

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  •  Margin of error applies both ways I believe (3+ / 0-)

    The actual polling memo:

    There are 806 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
    So at a 95% level, the actual result could be between:

    Clinton 44.5 - Paul 46.5 and
    Clinton 51.5 - Paul 38.5

    I'm not certain where the 6% figure comes from...it's not in the actual memo. I suspect the CNN blog took the first line of the memo...

    This survey of 1,035 adults was conducted Aug. 4 by The Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with McClatchy
    ...and converted to a margin of error of 6% (±3% each way), which would be the correct margin of error for a poll with a sample of 1000 sampling units.

    Political views TBD. Interested in elections.

    by Possible Liberal on Thu Aug 14, 2014 at 08:21:53 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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