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View Diary: Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever Information. World Map, HealthMap and Urban R-zero at "8" ??? (75 comments)

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  •  Wilderness voice pointed this out earlier. (4+ / 0-)
    •  i read the linked item about... (5+ / 0-)

      ... Ebola denialism and think it's a credible hypothesis.  Probably more likely than Ebola terrorism in this instance,  though I've been making noise about Ebola terrorism for well over a decade.

      Ebola denialism is also consistent with the various denialisms we see in effect around the world, notably climate denialism.  The psychological mechanisms are probably similar.  

      We got the future back. Uh-oh.

      by G2geek on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 12:16:12 AM PDT

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      •  I thought this at first, hearing that (4+ / 0-)

        the clinic was attacked and the ebola victims 'freed', but after reading that ebola contaminated items were also taken, I wasn't so sure. Why take live virus if you don't believe in it?

        •  good point, though.... (8+ / 0-)

          ... to play devil's advocate, people who are in denial may want to demonstrate bravado by nuzzling contaminated items to prove they aren't infectious?  

          Analogous to equivalent climate denialists who drive large diesel pickup trucks they call "coal rollers" that are modified to belch out lots of black smoke.

          Both are male and relatively uneducated compared to the norms for their societies.  (Too bad the "coal roller" guys don't get their karmic feedback as quickly as the Ebola guys, unless you count expensive engine repairs as karma.)

          So now we have two hypotheses:

          a)  Ebola terrorism of one kind or another, that may be purely local, or may be regional, or may play into other conflicts such as associated with Boko Haram or ISIL, or may be aimed at the global "market" pointing toward the US or Europe/UK.

          b)  Ebola denialism plus macho display.

          Either way, there should be some statistics before the month is over: increase in cases in a location where it would not otherwise be expected.

          We got the future back. Uh-oh.

          by G2geek on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 03:27:05 AM PDT

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        •  Most of the people in this slum have almost (7+ / 0-)

          nothing.  No jobs, money, limited food/clothing/shelter.  Many commit crimes daily to survive.  To them, never having had a mattress, to get one, either for personal use or to sell, would be fantastic (bloodstains notwithstanding).  They stole other things from the clinic, as well. Chairs, tables anything that they could get their hands on.  No evidence that they specifically tried to get Ebola-contaminated supplies.

          There are many other bioterrorism weapons that are much cheaper and safer for the terrorists to use.  Ebola is not that easy to spread.  

          If a terrorist, infected with Ebola, tried to spread the disease, he would have to have extremely close contact with his victims, have to vomit or bleed on them or somehow otherwise contaminate them with virus. Can't be easily done unobtrusively. And, those that he spewed on would have to fail to clean themselves up properly.    Also, most Ebola patients are really sick when they're symptomatic.  Not easy for them to get around to spread virus.

          Also, rate of infection by Ebola is lower than other viruses.  Mrs. Writebol lived with Mr. Writebol after she had developed symptoms.  Her husband didn't get it.  Dozens of healthcare personnel have returned from Liberia and other affected areas since the outbreak began.  None of them got it.  

          How long Ebola can survive outside of a host varies.  UV light can inactivate it.  So sunlight exposure could do it.  Also washing with 10% bleach, using other chlorine-containing cleaners can kill the virus.  I've heard that out-of-host survival for Ebola could be about 3 days.

          A word to the wise is sufficient. Republicans need at least a paragraph.

          by d3clark on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 07:13:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Your fact base with respect to this cycle (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kfunk937, d3clark

            of the virus could be optimistic.

            -- "Ebola is not that easy to spread."

            -- "[Anyone infected with Ebola] would have to have extremely close contact with his victims, have to vomit or bleed on them or somehow otherwise contaminate them with virus."

            -- "Most Ebola patients are really sick when they're symptomatic."

            Out of host survival for Ebola is unknown for field materials. At least days but no tests have been done for survival in organic media. (Any volunteers to run these tests ???)

            SECTION IV - STABILITY AND VIABILITY

            DRUG SUSCEPTIBILITY: Unknown. S-adenosylhomocysteine hydrolase inhibitors have been found to have complete mortality protection in mice infected with a lethal dose of Ebola virus (30).

            DRUG RESISTANCE: There are no known antiviral treatments available for human infections.

            SUSCEPTIBILITY TO DISINFECTANTS: Ebola virus is susceptible to sodium hypochlorite, lipid solvents, phenolic disinfectants, peracetic acid, methyl alcohol, ether, sodium deoxycholate, 2% glutaraldehyde, 0.25% Triton X-100, β-propiolactone, 3% acetic acid (pH 2.5), formaldehyde and paraformaldehyde, and detergents such as SDS (20, 21, 31-34).

            PHYSICAL INACTIVATION: Ebola are moderately thermolabile and can be inactivated by heating for 30 minutes to 60 minutes at 60ºC, boiling for 5 minutes, gamma irradiation (1.2 x106 rads to 1.27 x106 rads), and/or UV radiation.

            Also:
            COMMUNICABILITY: Communicable as long as blood, secretions, organs, or semen contain the virus. Ebola virus has been isolated from semen 61 days after the onset of illness, and transmission through semen has occurred 7 weeks after clinical recovery.

            SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days. Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C (3, 4). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation (= freezing and then warming in a vacuum so ice sublimes.)

            Transmission at 1 to 10 virus bodies in aerisolized form is easily enough generated. Bleeding on people? No.

            The practical isolation techniques used so far in Guinea and Liberia have failed to protect health workers. Liberia is down to 250 doctors for a population of 4,000,000. And 7 doctors have come down with Ebola.

            Drs. Kent Brantly and Nancy Writebol are at Emory. Don't expect much of that level of care in Africa.

            "The illiteracy of our children are appalling." #43

            by waterstreet2008 on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 07:52:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  A few things regarding your reply. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              waterstreet2008

              Ebola is not that easy to spread.  

              Dr. Daniel Bausch is an MD with a specialty in tropical medicine.  He has done research on both Ebola and Lassa and fieldwork on outbreaks of filoviruses in Africa, among other places.
              http://www.onthemedia.org/...

              The CDC on Ebola: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

              James Wilson, MD (pediatrician and infectious disease specialist) says that should Ebola reach the US, it would not cause a major outbreak and could be controlled relatively easily.  Wilson specializes in studying the course of infectious diseases and making predictions about their ability to spread.  He also has a background in US military intelligence. http://blog.sermo.com/...

              The Ebola outbreak that didn't occur in South Africa in spite of no precautions taken around two patients who were symptomatic with Ebola and had contact with 300+ other people.  http://americablog.com/...

              "There are no known antiviral treatments available for human infections."  Not true.  There are treatments available that have been successful in non-human primates.  They have not been tested in humans.  MApp, for example.  Though, since it has been given to Brantly and Writebol, among others, perhaps we can say that human studies are underway.  

              I didn't mention the other methods of inactivating Ebola, because, most people won't have access to things like a gamma source, but can easily get bleach (hypochlorite.)

              The two cases of transmission through semen, if I remember correctly, occurred post-intercourse.  The semen was not external to the host and subject to any environmental factors.  It was stored under physiologic conditions in the hosts.  We were talking about blood that is on mattresses and sheets, no longer in the vascular system, and now exposed to environmental factors like sunlight (UV radiation).  I seriously doubt that it would remain infections for 7 weeks.  But I can't say for sure.  

              Temperature in Liberia is often li the low mid-80s to mid-90s.  "Room temperature" when used in the literature is often assumed to be room temperature in temperate climates and is usually considered to be about 68 degrees F to about  78 degrees F.  My guess would be that Ebola would be less stable in a hot sunny climate like Liberia.

              I never contended that quarantine or treatment in Africa would be easy.  Outside of Monrovia, most of the rest of Liberia doesn't have electricity or running water.  They don't have the ability to decontaminate used biohazard equipment easily, if they even have biphazard equipment available.  To make an isolation ward at Brantly's hospital, they emptied out the chapel, strung up some ropes and let sheets hang over them.  Then they filled it with Ebola patients.  So, no, isolation/containment won't be easy at all.  But, in more developed countries, that would be much less of a problem.  Both Ebola patients brought to the US have survived.  No one at Emory has gotten the disease.

              As I mentioned previously, dozens of medical personnel have returned from Liberia and other countries in the Ebola zone to the US and other countries.  None has developed Ebola.  Some of them lived at the hospitals and clinics.  Those that did could have easily been exposed to Ebola patients who were coming in while the medics were sleeping and eating.  Not wearing any kind of protective garb then.

              A word to the wise is sufficient. Republicans need at least a paragraph.

              by d3clark on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 01:19:11 PM PDT

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              •  Ebola has five major identified strains. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                d3clark

                One strain is difficult to transmit.

                This strain, today, is easy to transmit.

                The Patrick Sawyer case, "PatSaw," ran up an "8" for re-transmittal at Lagos. And he was hospitalized and isolated asap.

                "The illiteracy of our children are appalling." #43

                by waterstreet2008 on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 02:10:58 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Sawyer was on a crowded plane, ill with Ebola (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  waterstreet2008

                  vomiting in an enclosed space, air being recirculated (not filtered).  Only 1 person in the plane got Ebola, Sawyer's personal assistant who had spent several days with him.  The other passengers, flight attendants, cleaning crew, none got Ebola.

                  There are five species of ebolavirus.  The RNA from the ebolavirus isolated from this outbreak has a 97% homology with Zaire ebolavirus.  I've read nothing that says that this strain is any "easier" to transmit than Zaire ebolavirus.  If you have links that demonstrate that the ebolavirus in this outbreak is easier to transmit, please provide them.  I'd be interested in reading them.  Thanks

                  Please see the citations I gave, above, re: transmission, infectiousness.

                  A word to the wise is sufficient. Republicans need at least a paragraph.

                  by d3clark on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 02:56:33 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  That's somewhat dated. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    d3clark
                    Airborne transmission has not been documented during previous EVD outbreaks. They are, however, infectious as breathable 0.8– to 1.2-μm laboratory-generated droplets. Because of this potential route of infection, these viruses have been classified as Category A biological weapons.

                    Recently, the virus has been shown to travel without contact from pigs to nonhuman primates.

                    Nobody knows for sure.

                    Avoiding vomit comes naturally. 8 people died from some form of contact or another with this patient.

                    "The illiteracy of our children are appalling." #43

                    by waterstreet2008 on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 04:05:54 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Not dated. Information released since this event (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      waterstreet2008

                      began.  As indicated in the references I provided, except for the historical reference to the non-outbreak in S. Africa.

                      In the pigs-to-primates study: Pigs, for some reason have more Ebola virus present in their lungs than other species (primates, antelopes, etc.)  In the same study, primate-to-primate transmission was not achieved using the same experimental conditions.  Also, possibility exists that when the experimental area was cleaned daily by hosing the area down, bits of feces were sprayed on the primates.  

                      It's not always possible to avoid vomit if the infected person suddenly vomits on someone else.  Some animals not only don't avoid vomit, they eat it.

                      Again, people on the plane with Sawyer, with one exception, his personal assistant who had prolonged close contact with him for days,  didn't get it.  Mr. Writebol didn't get it.  Dozens of exposed healthcare workers from the area didn't get it.  If it were as easily transmissible as you claim, with even a 60% mortality, the number of cases and deaths in the areas affected would be huge.  

                      Example, the West Point section of Monrovia. People virtually living on top of each other.  Several to a room, many sharing toilets.  Poor sanitation. Some sharing eating utensils.  Ebola present in this area of a few hundred thousand people.  Yet few cases of Ebola.  If it could be transmitted easily, especially by droplet spread, would expect tens of thousands of cases by now, not a dozen.

                      Please show links that have information stating that virus in this outbreak is more easily transmitted than other, similar strains.  Thanks.

                      A word to the wise is sufficient. Republicans need at least a paragraph.

                      by d3clark on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 09:13:21 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  You miss the obvious. (0+ / 0-)

                        "Please show links that have information stating that virus in this outbreak is more easily transmitted than other, similar strains."

                        Open your eyes.

                        This strain is killing medical personnel and primary care givers by the dozens. Dr. Sheik Umar Khan died in Sierra Leone and he certainly was not exposed to "bodily fluids" from his patients.

                        At end of July 700 had died. Today that looks to be 3,000 verified and nobody knows what is happening off the books.

                        Any research work that was done with earlier strains is loosely  connected to this strain. And a 97% match at the DNA is not even close for such match ups. We're closer overall to chimpanzees.

                        Finally, research that is quoted today is different from new research. D'oh.

                        "The illiteracy of our children are appalling." #43

                        by waterstreet2008 on Tue Aug 19, 2014 at 04:23:54 AM PDT

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                        •  It's obvious that you are more into trying (0+ / 0-)

                          to sensationalize your hypothesis without providing evidence. You make unsupported claims as if they were facts, when they are not.  There's no point in attempting a reasonable discussion with you when you can't make any valid counterarguments (e.g. you've yet to show any evidence for your claim that this strain is highly infectious.)   You seem to only be interested in defending your untenable position and trying to fear monger.  Since that is the case there is no point in continuing.  

                          A word to the wise is sufficient. Republicans need at least a paragraph.

                          by d3clark on Tue Aug 19, 2014 at 05:12:40 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  And nonsense is nonsense. (0+ / 0-)

                            You present nothing to indicate that the R-zero of this strain and its transmittal characteristics match earlier outbreaks.

                            And nobody at WHO is making such claims.

                            "The illiteracy of our children are appalling." #43

                            by waterstreet2008 on Tue Aug 19, 2014 at 02:32:31 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

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