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View Diary: Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever Information. World Map, HealthMap and Urban R-zero at "8" ??? (75 comments)

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  •  What's you pick for the Urban R-Zero number ? (1+ / 0-)
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    mosesfreeman

    You get two: for the big cities in West Africa and for Europe.

    "The illiteracy of our children are appalling." #43

    by waterstreet2008 on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 10:09:32 AM PDT

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    •  This is just a guess (1+ / 0-)
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      waterstreet2008

      but I would say 3 for Lagos et al, and 0.1 or less for Europe.

      … the NSA takes significant care to prevent any abuses and that there is a substantial oversight system in place,” Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-California), said August 23.

      by mosesfreeman on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 12:01:39 PM PDT

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      •  For the first 5 days of infection on average (0+ / 0-)

        the R-zero is determined almost solely by population density.

        The sixth day is when the victim shows symptoms, again that's as a average.

        Ebola don't know no White European "privilege." And it's a miracle that earlier cycles didn't make it to Europe.

        Cleanliness and education are irrelevant. As a guess an indoor dance club and a commuter train car would compete to be the perfect site for multiple transfers.

        R-zero = 50 is readily doable for an evening.

        "The illiteracy of our children are appalling." #43

        by waterstreet2008 on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 01:52:25 PM PDT

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        •  You're not going to see transfer of secretions (1+ / 0-)
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          waterstreet2008

          in the latter, remember, it's not airborne. All bets are off for the former.

          So if I'm right, and we see 30k cases or less by November, with no significant breakout beyond Africa, you're buying the drinks right?

          … the NSA takes significant care to prevent any abuses and that there is a substantial oversight system in place,” Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-California), said August 23.

          by mosesfreeman on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 02:07:03 PM PDT

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          •  Earlier outbreaks presented high death rates with (1+ / 0-)
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            mosesfreeman

            low transfer rates.

            This outbreak is different. The death rate is still sky high and the transfer rate is almost certainly not in the 1-to-2 range -- more like 5 to 10 in urban environments.

            WHO restated today that "bodily fluids" are the only means of transfer. However, does coughing count? The viability goes a couple of days in saliva -- how much saliva is necessary?

            Consider behavior when people go into Ebola.

            Sure thing, we get to November and it's only 30,000 cases and nothing in Europe, I'm good for drinks. Joe's Pub NYC and tickets to what's on stage. And a free surgical mask for jollies.

            Because otherwise, if this thing isn't stopped before it gets to 10,000 cases: this strain of Ebola could kill 50,000,000 in Africa over a decade. Its robustness looks to be capable of sending it out in wave after wave.

            Europe? Try Asia. And with what happened in Lagos, we know that transfer is relatively easy. A new strain of Ebola -- you betcha. A Poisson distribution with mean at 1.5 and a 25 event count has less than 1 chance in 100 of throwing off an 8.

            That PatSaw event killed one nurse wearing full protective gear and anticipating Ebola. And it's killing medical personnel and caretakers by the hundreds.

            "The illiteracy of our children are appalling." #43

            by waterstreet2008 on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 03:54:07 PM PDT

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