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View Diary: Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever Information. World Map, HealthMap and Urban R-zero at "8" ??? (75 comments)

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  •  Earlier outbreaks presented high death rates with (1+ / 0-)
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    low transfer rates.

    This outbreak is different. The death rate is still sky high and the transfer rate is almost certainly not in the 1-to-2 range -- more like 5 to 10 in urban environments.

    WHO restated today that "bodily fluids" are the only means of transfer. However, does coughing count? The viability goes a couple of days in saliva -- how much saliva is necessary?

    Consider behavior when people go into Ebola.

    Sure thing, we get to November and it's only 30,000 cases and nothing in Europe, I'm good for drinks. Joe's Pub NYC and tickets to what's on stage. And a free surgical mask for jollies.

    Because otherwise, if this thing isn't stopped before it gets to 10,000 cases: this strain of Ebola could kill 50,000,000 in Africa over a decade. Its robustness looks to be capable of sending it out in wave after wave.

    Europe? Try Asia. And with what happened in Lagos, we know that transfer is relatively easy. A new strain of Ebola -- you betcha. A Poisson distribution with mean at 1.5 and a 25 event count has less than 1 chance in 100 of throwing off an 8.

    That PatSaw event killed one nurse wearing full protective gear and anticipating Ebola. And it's killing medical personnel and caretakers by the hundreds.

    "The illiteracy of our children are appalling." #43

    by waterstreet2008 on Mon Aug 18, 2014 at 03:54:07 PM PDT

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