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View Diary: NY: Upset of The Century? Defining Moment for 'More and Better', or Just Another Windmill (28 comments)

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  •  What would be the result? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    quill, ManhattanMan

    Cuomo would still run on the Independence and (ironically) Working Families lines, and so still be in the race.  Would that be enough to swing the election to Astorino?

    •  No way a Rethug wins gov in NY - just not reality (16+ / 0-)

      In New York the Dem primary is the de facto general election.

      Virtually all the experts agree the winner of the Democratic Party primary wins the general election in November - Teachout Or Cuomo.  Even should such a split occur, (doubtful) the batshit rw crazy party could not garner enough votes to win.

      The 'oh no a split party!' drumbeat is the same one put out to scare voters by national dlc/3way scaremongers who try to discredit progressives nationally, i.e. if not Hillary then doom doom  doom fear fire foes, or something.

      The WFP is basically dead after the shit it pulled this year - grooming Teachout to run then backstabbing her by endorsing the virulently anti-union Cuomo after a last minute backroom deal.

      • "But such is the irresistable nature of truth, that all it asks, and all it wants is the liberty of appearing." Thomas Paine
      • "The trust of the innocent is the liar's most useful tool." Stephen King

      by Tommymac on Tue Aug 26, 2014 at 07:37:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pataki ring a bell? n/t (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tarkangi, NorthCountryNY
      •  I think you're dreaming (0+ / 0-)

        First of all, Astorino is no extremist, nor a Tea Partier. He very well could win if Cuomo continues to run.

        As it stands now, assuming Teachout loses and nothing new comes up to tarnish Cuomo before November, you can expect about a 65-35 or 70-30 landslide.  That's down from the 2010 results because Astorino isn't a certifiable loony like Paladino is, and because Cuomo's image has taken a hit due to the Moreland Commission fiasco.

        So if Teachout wins, and Cuomo stays in the race, party Democrats will probably line up behind Teachout.  But it's the non-party moderates, the ones who buy Astorino's characterization of Teachout, that we have to worry about.  Some percentage of voters are going to find Teachout either unacceptably liberal or unacceptably inexperienced, and vote for Cuomo or even Astorino instead of voting for her.  Will that percentage be enough to pull Astorino ahead of the other two?  Maybe a 40-30-25 split?

        I agree that Astorino couldn't hit 50% in New York.  But he doesn't have to.

    •  would Astorino be much worse than Cuomo? (9+ / 0-)

      I mean Cuomo already all but identifies as a Republican himself. This may be one of those rare situations where the dominant Dem is so bad that it's worth a gamble of losing to the Repub by supporting the dark horse.

      That may be the calculus of many Dem voters at this point.

      "Tell the truth and run." -- Yugoslav proverb

      by quill on Tue Aug 26, 2014 at 07:38:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good point. 'Almost' rather have a real rethug (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LI Mike, CenPhx, quill, blueoasis

        than a wolf in sheep's clothing. Truly, I don't wish a rw batshit crazy gov on anyone.  Too many poor and middle class people would be harmed.

        But reality. If Teachout wins in Sept - she wins in November.

        • "But such is the irresistable nature of truth, that all it asks, and all it wants is the liberty of appearing." Thomas Paine
        • "The trust of the innocent is the liar's most useful tool." Stephen King

        by Tommymac on Tue Aug 26, 2014 at 07:42:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  There are dramatic differences (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LtPowers

        between Astorino and Cuomo. It might be accurate to label Cuomo more of a centrist Democrat, but he's hardly a Republican, especially in the very conservative Astorino mold.

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