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View Diary: Mary Burke keeps her lead on Scott Walker, but it's tight (31 comments)

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  •  Not what Walker had planned (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    howabout, Amber6541

    He expected an easy reelection and them full-steam on to his WH bid. Now he stands a good chance of defeat. Boo-hoo.

    He misunderstood his recall win. They didn't support you, Scotty, they just didn't believe in throwing you out so early in your term. But in the regular scheduled election, they certainly will.

    •  LOL.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      "Now he stands a good chance of defeat".

      again with the desperate baloney. How do you figure Burke's 1-2 pt lead in recent polls proves anything since this is within the margin of error?

      I want Wanker gone as well, but this poll gives me no confidence democrats are going to show up and vote.

      "We are beyond law, which is not unusual for an empire; unfortunately, we are also beyond common sense." Gore Vidal

      by Superpole on Wed Aug 27, 2014 at 01:55:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well yeah... (0+ / 0-)

        Considering that the polling has been extremely close. The consensus is this is a tossup or lean R race at worst.

        "Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek." - Barack Obama

        by anshmishra on Wed Aug 27, 2014 at 01:59:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  50-50 is a good chance. (0+ / 0-)

        We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

        by James Allen on Wed Aug 27, 2014 at 02:04:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Go look at the trends (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        hbk, GeoffT, nadd2, Amber6541

          Over the last 2 months, you see Burke picking up 1-2 points every few weeks, and in the aggregate, she leads (especially when you throw out a 400-person junk poll from St. Norbert in the early part of this year). I see no reason that trend can't continue, particularly since everyone knows Walker, but not everyone knows Burke.

           Add in the fact that much of this poll was taken before the latest scandals, and the fact that it's BURKE SUPPORTERS in the poll that are more likely to vote, and the upside in this race is Mary's.

           That doesn't mean there isn't 10 more weeks of hard work to go, but the good guys are in a good spot right now.

        •  The undecideds are 4.3% of RV's (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z, Amber6541

          0.7% are Dem undecideds, 2.5% are Independent undecideds.  0.1% are Republicans.

          Undecideds are 1.9% of LV's:  the D/I/R split is 0.8%/0.6%/0.1%.

          There just aren't any Republicans left who can come to Walker's side, and given Walker's exceedingly high name recognition and widespread impact on the state it seems unlikely that many undecided Independents could be persuaded towards him amongst those who haven't already been.  They'll likely break either for Burke or for sitting out the election.

          Walker's main hope for boosting his LV percentages has to be in turning his very-likely-but-not-absolutely-uncertain and 50-50 likelihood voters into actual voters.  Miring himself in scandal, jobs failure and budgetary failure is going to push him onto the defensive for large chunks of the rest of the campaign.

          Canceling the QCEW pre-release seems like shooting himself in the foot: his best bet to minimize the political damage from that and the revenue numbers which will both inevitably be out before the election would be to have them hit at the same time.  He could now push back the revenue numbers until mid-September, but that in itself would looks terrible.

          Fake candidates nominated by the GOP for the recalls: 6 out of 7. Fake signatures on the recall petitions: 4 out of 1,860,283.

          by GeoffT on Wed Aug 27, 2014 at 06:14:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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