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View Diary: Bernie Sanders election rally in Raleigh, NC (62 comments)

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  •  Says you (9+ / 0-)

    He only has zero chance if people won't vote for him, and despite the amazing prognostications of the all-knowing "Hillary will be our nominee crowd", I am far from convinced. Bernie has a message that resonates and he delivers it well. He has every chance to win.

    •  zero chance (4+ / 0-)

      zero.

      and i suggest you look at the actual polls of hillary's popularity among democratic voters.

      The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

      by Laurence Lewis on Thu Aug 28, 2014 at 12:12:51 PM PDT

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      •  Given she doesn't have any opposition that is (6+ / 0-)

        known, hardly shocking.

        If she is as good as we can do, we need to start over.

        The only hawk I like is the kind that has feathers. My birding blogs: http://thisskysings.wordpress.com/ and canyonbirds.net

        by cany on Thu Aug 28, 2014 at 12:23:18 PM PDT

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        •  nope (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          RoIn, AlexDrew, Dr Swig Mcjigger

          she's the overwhelming first choice among self-described liberal democrats.

          As my colleague Harry Enten pointed out in May, Clinton has generally done as well or better in polls of liberal Democrats as among other types of Democrats. Between September and March, an average of 70 percent of liberal Democrats named her as their top choice for the 2016 nomination as compared to 65 percent of Democrats overall. An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted more recently showed Clinton with 72 percent of the primary vote among liberal Democrats as compared to 66 percent of all Democrats. And a CNN poll conducted last month gave her 66 percent of the liberal Democratic vote against 67 percent of all Democrats.

          The CNN poll is slightly more recent than the others, but if there’s been a meaningful change in how rank-and-file liberal Democrats perceive Clinton, you’d have to squint to see it. Perhaps more important, it’s extremely rare to see a non-incumbent candidate poll so strongly so early. In the earliest stages of the 2008 Democratic nomination race, Clinton was polling between 25 percent and 40 percent of the vote — not between 60 percent and 70 percent, as she is now. Clinton could lose quite a bit of Democratic support and still be in a strong position.

          http://fivethirtyeight.com/...

          The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

          by Laurence Lewis on Thu Aug 28, 2014 at 12:29:39 PM PDT

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          •  Of course she's first choice... right now, no one (0+ / 0-)

            else has even entered the race!  Sheesh!

            The only hawk I like is the kind that has feathers. My birding blogs: http://thisskysings.wordpress.com/ and canyonbirds.net

            by cany on Thu Aug 28, 2014 at 07:03:52 PM PDT

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            •  Including her. She is killing it. Admit it. (0+ / 0-)

              Only 17 months til Iowa. Tick Tock 8%'ers.

              New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

              by AlexDrew on Thu Aug 28, 2014 at 07:23:29 PM PDT

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      •  Generic popularity of a well-known figure, (5+ / 0-)

        who is not currently running for anything. Great data point right there. I'm sure that will carry over perfectly to the nearly identical situation of running in a Democratic primary against a well-spoken opponent who holds all the positions that are actually popular in the Democratic party, which Hillary most certainly does not hold. Give me a break.

        •  once again (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          RoIn, AlexDrew, Dr Swig Mcjigger

          read the actual polling data. it's not complicated.

          http://fivethirtyeight.com/...

          The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

          by Laurence Lewis on Thu Aug 28, 2014 at 12:30:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ok, I've read them (3+ / 0-)

            I even followed the links in the article to the actual polls. I get it, if the primary were held today, Hillary would win and Bernie would hardly merit a blip. Once again, I contend those polls are utterly meaningless. Their predictive worth is zero. Zero. Lets have a debate or two, when more than just a handful of local Democrats will have heard Bernie speak, and then look at a poll. Lets see what happens after Bernie wins Massachusetts (which I will work my ASS off to see happen). The inevitability meme is just bull. And honestly, I don't think she's even our most electable candidate. Her centrist positions will not inspire young voters the way Obama did, despite the similarity in their positions - Clinton just doesn't sell it as well and those young voters are jaded after being burned by the centrist in liberal clothing that they perceive Obama was. If Hillary IS our nominee, there's a better than even chance that we lose the general, if you ask me, as we will cede the populist position to whatever "libertarian" nut the right puts up. Bernie not only has a good chance of a surprise upset in the primary, but he may be our only hope of firing up our base and making the 2016 general a solid win with coattails.

            •  obama's inspirational powers (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              AlexDrew, Dr Swig Mcjigger

              would have been meaningless if he hadn't been a fundraising powerhouse. bernie never will be.

              hillary is extremely popular among democrats. people like her. she is their first choice. and she will have piles of cash bernie won't. and even if she decided to drop out, others would enter. people capable of raising the money bernie never will. he has zero chance. zero.

              The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

              by Laurence Lewis on Thu Aug 28, 2014 at 02:05:06 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Let's see what happens when..... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              unclejohn, Rachael7

              1) Bernie officially registers as a Democrat and declares his candidacy...

              2) Bernie finishes second in Iowa.......

              3) Bernie finishes 1st in New Hampshire.......

              ......maybe the centrists will begin panicking...

            •  Sanders wont' win MA (0+ / 0-)

              MA voters even prefer Hillary to their own senator Warren according to a recent poll.

              •  Except Warren isn't running (0+ / 0-)

                And MA voters still have very limited exposure to Bernie. Nothing is set in stone, not by a longshot.

                •  That misses the point (0+ / 0-)

                  MA voters have huge exposure to Warren and HRC is crushing her, an incumbent senator with the highest popularity ratings of any in state politician. If HRC is crushing Warren, who has the benefit of being their senator, how on earth is Sanders going to rival HRC there, even if he does increase his exposure?

                  •  Because the polling is still reflecting (0+ / 0-)

                    an idealized vision of who people think HRC is. Once policy positions start getting compared, debates start happening, and particularly once people start to believe an alternative is actually possible, things could well change. Also, someone like Bernie or Warren could pull huge numbers of young people to the primaries, who would not normally be counted in polls of likely voters at this point. Look, I'm not saying that HRC isn't the odds-on favorite, just that she is not "inevitable" unless we make her so. And given her many negatives, I see no reason not to have the most competitive primary we can. And in my mind, that means starting from the position that there ARE other options that we at least have to consider. Perhaps I'm alone in that sentiment, but I doubt it.

                    •  people know who she is (0+ / 0-)

                      she's been around for more than two decades now. Democrats like her. She polls well with young voters, too. I seen no evidence to support the claim that Sanders will bring all these young voters out. Yes HRC has negatives. Sanders has them too. In terms  of electability, he's almost all negative with very few, if any, positives.

    •  And what's more, his candidacy might end up (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      quill, tropical fruit

      drawing others into the race.
         Eugene McCarthy did that in 1968 when he showed the slam-dunk candidate, President Johnson to be vulnerable, and drew Bobby Kennedy in at that time.
          And RFK would likely have won that year were he not assassinated.

      "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

      by elwior on Thu Aug 28, 2014 at 12:40:44 PM PDT

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      •  Eugene McCarthy.... (0+ / 0-)

        was a waste of time.  I don't believe Bernie would be like that.

      •  Strikes me as unlikely (0+ / 0-)

        The primary process isn't as long and drawn out as it was back in days of old.  If you don't start organizing and fundraising early, you get steamrolled, especially if you are an underdog. I supposed Gore could have jumped in relatively late in the 04 cycle, none of the other candidates this year have the kind of stature within the party that he did at that point.

    •  Bernie and Liz (3+ / 0-)

      I would vote for a Sanders/Warren ticket in a heatbeat

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