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View Diary: Savings in Medicare spending bigger than any deficit-reduction plan (36 comments)

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  •  Before forecasting, the reasons for the per person (0+ / 0-)

    cost reduction needs to be better understood.

    Software makes it all too simple to make forecasts with beautiful graphics to make people think the forecast is a near certainty.

    Before a sensible forecast can be done, a model to explain past price behavior is needed.

    Many factors that are very short term may have been the driving forces for the per person cost decline.

    Some factors to explore include:

    - What do the cost curves look like for people N years old?  This is to understand the degree the cost change is based on age distribution Vs other factors.

    - How have these costs changed in different parts of the country?

    - How do cost trends for Medicare Advantage compare to traditional Medicare?

    - Has there been a shift in where people live after retirement into locations with lower health care costs?

    - Has there been a change in the intensity of medical care provided?

    - To what extent have various drugs becoming generic changed the cost curve (e.g. Lipitor went off patent)?

    The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

    by nextstep on Wed Sep 03, 2014 at 12:05:08 PM PDT

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