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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: When questioning a poll sample goes beyond 'unskewing' (78 comments)

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  •   this is the first poll showing Burke leading (10+ / 0-)

    and by a margin likely around the margin of error. if we get another few polls like this with her in the lead, i think we can shift the race from tossup to leans D. Walker has maxed out his support, there are no more independents to gain that he doesnt already have. burke has been pickingup support each week, and i expect her to win in november.

    •  J-S dead silent on it (6+ / 0-)

        Hmmm, think the J-S would have that poll listed if Walker was up 4 instead of down 4. Their bias is getting overwhelming.

         They must be seeing similar slippage with their boy Scotty, because they're going out of their way this week to rig Politi-crap in the GOP's favor, and make some fauxtrage out of DWS's quotes about Walker's horrible record on women's issues.

         Which means if we and the Burke campaign push back HARD on Walker's awful record and the GOP's whininess, Scotty might be close to slipping past a point of no real return.

      •  Of COURSE they're silent (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        stevenaxelrod, Midwesterners

        They've been back to their same old Walker fluffing now with extra added butt-hurt and victimization because Debbie Wasserman-Schultz said something mean (but true) about Snotty.  I was upset and angry to see DWS pull back on her statement.  

        And Polit-Fact is in use, too, to make Walker look all prettied up and make Burke and the Dems look like liars.

        Another day, same Wisconsin Pravda.

        There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

        by Puddytat on Fri Sep 05, 2014 at 12:22:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  MJS: Absolute crickets about Burke's lead in polls (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Puddytat

          You both positively nailed it.  The pro-Walker (or pro-Koch) bias of the MJS is about as bad as anything I have ever seen in my sixty years of living.  Along with the MJS's useless "Politi-crap"--as you so aptly called it--I would think that any real journalist still associated with this paper would be wincing and cringing all day long from utter embarrassment.  THE MJS hasn't progressed beyond the "good ole days" of Joe McCarthy in 1950 Wisconsin.  

    •  second poll to show her leading (5+ / 0-)

      last MU Law poll had her up among likely voters

      •  true. Walker never trailed at any point during (3+ / 0-)

        the 2010 or recall races. Hes trailing now, and realistically his only chance is to drive up Marys negatives. Of course if the 7th Circuit reopens the John Doe this month - arguments on the 9th, decision will likely be sometime afterward- that will only weaken Walker further. If I was Chrisolm, I would Indict him around the end of the month. the shot of walkers mug shot would be prevelant in every dem ad from now until election day.

        •  Let's be realistic (4+ / 0-)

          Even if the 7th Circuit reopens the case, Walker won't be indicted by November.  Cases take time to investigate and develop, and prosecutors don't indict in cases like this until they have obtained all the evidence.  What they will try to do first is to get some of his underlings to flip on Walker, and that will take time.

          But reopening the John Doe case would bring the investigation back in the news, and more bad publicity to Walker.  And given how tight this race is, it may be enough to push Walker into the abyss.

          If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

          by USA629 on Fri Sep 05, 2014 at 08:55:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  imo, they already have enough evidence from (4+ / 0-)

            what they have now, to issue indictments. we know he shifted money to get around disclosure laws and in coordination with outside groups, which is illegal by both state and federal law. we know he got 700000 from Geocobic and quell surprise! Geocobic gets what it wants after he wins the recall, a law gutting environmental oversight laws. basically a quid pro quo. Even if a trial would take months, the fact that he is under indictment would be known to just about everyone in the state, and Wisconsinites dont keep officeholders under indictment in office. the last officeholder in WI to be indicted was a Democrat, Gary George, in 2004. he was quickly recalled from office .

          •  The RW jumped on the 2nd John Doe (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            USA629

            with multiple lawsuits in numerous venues.  They know there's plenty of evidence of collusion and coordination.

            The unsealing of documents has made Walker look as guilty as sin - particularly the $700,000 given by Gogebic to Wis Club for Growth with their double whammy mining bills rammed through right after that.  Trust me, we looked for mining donors, but couldn't find big donations until those Doe documents were unsealed.

            The drip-drip-drip isn't helping Walker.  Even if they can't indict, because the investigation was just getting underway, the fact that the Appeals Court is hearing the case is helpful in undermining Walker and his chances by letting people take a tiny peek at what he's been up to.

            There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

            by Puddytat on Fri Sep 05, 2014 at 12:26:43 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I agree that the investigation is hurting Walker (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Puddytat, MichaelNY

              and has a decent chance of tossing him out of office.
              But those who are hoping for an indictment before the election as a nail in Walker's coffin are going to be disappointed.

              I do think Walker will be indicted if the case is allowed to go forward, but my guess is that won't happen until 2015.  They're going to try to flip some of his aides to make the case against Walker.  

              My guess is that we may get both Walker and Christie in 2015.  

              If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

              by USA629 on Fri Sep 05, 2014 at 12:40:46 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I fully agree (0+ / 0-)

                Even if an indictment is in the far future, much of the damage has already been done.  Those unsealed documents revealed smarminess and pay to play politics at its worst.

                With the preponderance of evidence showing coordination and collusion, I'm hopeful that the Court of Appeals is going to allow the Doe to continue.

                IMHO, prosecutors should have indicted Walker after the original John Doe, but held out for the second investigation that they started because the charges there would have been worse.  They didn't realize that a bird in the hand was worth two in the bush.

                There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

                by Puddytat on Fri Sep 05, 2014 at 12:50:46 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well the District Court would have thrown it out (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  if they tried to indict him after the first John Doe.  So I'm not sure it would have made much of a difference legally.  

                  Would it have been enough to flip the recall?  Maybe, if you could convince enough of the anti-recall voters to get rid of him over this.  But my guess is Walker would have survived anyway.

                  If you refuse to vote for the Democrat in a Presidential general election, then I hold you personally responsible for any right-wing Supreme Court decision.

                  by USA629 on Fri Sep 05, 2014 at 12:58:24 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  To Tossup/Tilt D (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Theodore J Pickle

      The margins are too small for Lean D. But really, I don't care if she wins by 1,000 votes, I just want her to win.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Sep 06, 2014 at 01:44:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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