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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: When questioning a poll sample goes beyond 'unskewing' (78 comments)

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  •  Realistically (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pale Jenova

    cell phone only households have crossed 40 percent and climbing, meaning that unless someone figures out how to master online polling, that could be a wrap for the industry.

    Add about four points for the Democrat to every poll in a modern metro, 2 or three for more rural. That is my opinion, as you are not paying me for it, no harm to you if I am wrong.

    But I won't be.

    Pryor and Crist will both win comfortably. The shocker of the night will be GA-Nunn will win.

    The Dems will gain in the House, hold the Senate, setting up a bloodbath for the GOP in 2016 when the shoe is on the other incumbent foot.

    But you might want to ask me WHY Pryor wins however.

    •  Oh and the man (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      brn2bwild, Pale Jenova

      who has overseen a fall of unemployment to 6.1 percent is NOT at 38 percent approval, Gallup. Just close down already.

      There is No. Fucking. Way. Figure about 45 percent, and that number will probably go up. But it is hard to imagine why a man with a record of success similar to Clinton's is not as popular..

      Oh wait I know why..

      SMFH

    •  on the first part, I would bet against you (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, Pale Jenova

      Yes, there's a "dark side of the moon" problem — but some pollsters are calling cell phones, and others have strategies that are far from perfect but haven't been systematically biased. (And then there are the ones that are just plain bad.) I don't think adding two to four points in every poll is good advice. It might be good advice in certain states depending on who is polling there; I'm not trying to figure that stuff out.

      As of today, I'd be pretty surprised if Democrats gained seats in the House — more so than I would be surprised if Nunn won.

      "Democracy is a political system for people who are not sure they are right." —E. E. Schattschneider

      by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Sep 05, 2014 at 08:08:39 AM PDT

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      •  Two points for every (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Pale Jenova

        10 percent of the electorate you miss cells by. This is back of the napkin stuff, I have not done the formal calculations in a while, but I think the only wave coming is a blue one.

        Generally a cell only voter block is plus 20 for the Dem. 60-40.

        So say you have a poll of home phone only, and that poll says R 48-D-48. Well, we know that the cell onlies are near 40 percent of the electorate and go about 60-40 D. This should say 52 D 44 R. Let's see how the numbers match the polling and revisit it after the election.

        Like I say not asking to be paid yet. More results are needed but I am 99 percent confident.

        •  so will you give us 99-1 odds? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus, sulthernao, Pale Jenova

          A big problem with your back-of-the-envelope calculation is that cell-only voters aren't sui generis. Demographic weighting isn't perfect, but it can far reduce the bias.

          You could have done a similar calculation prior to the 2012 general election. How accurate would it have been?

          I'm not trying to whistle past the polling graveyard here; I just think there's more to this problem than you are considering.

          "Democracy is a political system for people who are not sure they are right." —E. E. Schattschneider

          by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Sep 05, 2014 at 08:29:28 AM PDT

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      •  Agreed. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HudsonValleyMark, Pale Jenova
        As of today, I'd be pretty surprised if Democrats gained seats in the House — more so than I would be surprised if Nunn won.
        I was stunned in 2012 when +9 was all they could manage.
        I don't expect anything better this cycle, even given the structural advantages that Democrats have.

        -7.75 -4.67

        "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

        There are no Christians in foxholes.

        by Odysseus on Fri Sep 05, 2014 at 12:20:32 PM PDT

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        •  What structural advantages? (0+ / 0-)

          In the House? None. The gerrymandering is weighted strongly against them. And in the Senate? Again, none. The map is very difficult for them. That doesn't mean they might not gain seats in the House, but they really are extremely likely to have a net loss in the Senate.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Sep 06, 2014 at 01:49:58 AM PDT

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