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View Diary: Cheney to Generals: Prepare to Attack Iran (398 comments)

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  •  Millions (4.00)
    Here's some info from the Union of Concerned Scientists.

    The Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator

    The RNEP design: Weapons designers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory intend to use an existing high-yield nuclear warhead--the 1.2-megaton B83 nuclear bomb--in a longer, stronger and heavier bomb casing.  The B83 is the largest nuclear weapon in the U.S. arsenal, and nearly 100 times more powerful than the nuclear bomb used on Hiroshima.

    The article references a National Academies of Sciences publication for the "millions" figure.

    Finally, here's a figure from the UCS.  I've included the caption below the figure (click image to enlarge):

    Figure 1:  Fallout from the use of RNEP against the Esfahan nuclear facility in Iran would spread for thousands of miles across Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. It would kill 3 million people within 2 weeks of the explosion and expose 35 million to cancer causing radiation.
    •  Pakistan is screwed (none)
      If there is nuclear detonation in Iran, Pakistan is utterly screwed.
      •  The people who are screwed are mostly in (4.00)
        central Iran.  Millions of them die, many in a matter of days.  The people in the most red and yellow areas are the ones who have the serious problems.  The people in the next band get significant increases in cancer risk.  Only the blue band hits Pakistan (and the less densely populated parts of Pakistan at that), which is more like a full body X-Ray level of exposure -- a slight increase of cancer risk that hits millions of people, but not "utterly screwed".

        Of course, this doesn't mean that I think it makes sense.  Three million ordinary innocent Iranians don't deserve to die, and millions of others don't deserve an increased cancer risk.  But, the illustration does not to be interpreted accurately.

        "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities" -- Voltaire

        by ohwilleke on Fri Jul 22, 2005 at 04:57:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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