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View Diary: Exit polls (300 comments)

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  •  I think it's a tie (none)
    Same score as the Super Bowl for most of the first half.
    •  But (none)
      I expect that tie score to hold up in the Joe-Dennis Bowl.
      •  Will change on Saturday (none)
        Except that I guarantee DK will get some delegates out of Washington on Saturday.
        •  Guarantee? (none)
          Does DK need to reach a minimum threshold to get delegates?
          •  I believe (none)
            to get delegates in any stae, a candidate must hit 15% in some congressional district.

            Someone correct me if I'm wrong...

            •  There are several (none)
              There are several congressional districts in Washington where Kucinich will break 15%.  He will probably be near that statewide.
            •  My understanding as a WA voter (none)
              To get delegates at the precinct level, you need 15% in that precinct.

              Whether that translates into a delegate at the state level depends. Delegates from the precinct level go to both the county and legislative district conventions.

              At the legislative district meeting, a portion of the delegates to the state convention are selected. At the county level, a portion of delegates are sent on to the state level. Each delegate needs to exceed the 15% threshold.

              Seattle proper is liberal enough that Kucinich will likely get 20% of the vote. Remember, the 7th district is progressive enough that the Republicans didn't bother to run a candidate in 2000 against Congressman for life Democrat Jim McDermott, but the Green Party ran Joe Swazja and got 20%. Kucinich is likely to get at least those people if they show up at the caucuses. I wouldn't be surprised if he got 30%. Dean has more strength, and Kerry and Edwards might get a surge from today's results, but Kucinich is likely to beat a couple of those people in Seattle no matter what.

              So I'd be surprised if he doesn't get at least one delegate from the 7th district. But this might not show up on Saturday because statewide his numbers are likely to be below the threshold.

    •  Kucinich has a least one (none)
      Since he's a super-delegate I would think he'll vote for himself.

      You fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia".--The Sicilian

      by yellowdog on Tue Feb 03, 2004 at 05:05:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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