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  •  Exit polls were wrong last time... (none)
    The exit polls from last week had Dean at 31 or 33 (depending on the source), and had Clark at 9.

    "The Corner has these exit polls showing Kerry vs. Dean "FOX 36-31, CBS 37-30, LA Times 36-33"

    Update III: Matt Drudge says final exit polls show Kerry 34, Dean 31, Edwards 12 and Clark 9"

    They were way off, and I don't trust the current source: National Review Online.

    We'll see at the end of the night.

    The Bush Budget: Borrowing a Million Dollars a Minute off your future...

    by Maxwell on Tue Feb 03, 2004 at 04:47:16 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  That's not (none)
      "way off" - it is margin of error.
      •  Then the MOE is rather high, no? (none)
        If the MOE is 7%, sure.

        The Bush Budget: Borrowing a Million Dollars a Minute off your future...

        by Maxwell on Tue Feb 03, 2004 at 05:01:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  More like 5% (none)
          Kerry's number was off by 4%, Dean's by 5% and Clark's by 3%.

          5% is a pretty standard moe.

          •  Margin of Error (none)
            Given there are multiple candidates (categories) in estimating vote percentage (rather than a simple bush-not bush or yes-no,where there is really only one variable X, since the other is simply  100 - x), shouldn't the accuracy (margin of error) be measured by a chi-square (goodness-of-fit) statistic rather than the normal distribution?

            I just come here for the fresh air like everybody else.

            by fredbellemore on Tue Feb 03, 2004 at 05:25:21 PM PST

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            •  Depends on the pollster (none)
              but, to the best of my knowledge, most pollsters use the convention that if x is the moe then any of the figures could be off by x.  One piece of evidence for this interpretation is the small sample size (usually on the order of 500-600 people) which would peg MOE somewhere in 3-5%.

              I would agree that a "goodness of fit" measure would be better, but then everyone would realize that close polls don't tell you much...

      •  MOE of 5 (none)
        for each candidate in an exit poll.  Well goood to know -

        So Clark 33, Kerry 24, Edwards 24 is reflected in these results for Okla.?


    •  Those got the order right (none)
      And over predicted the strength of second place.

      My gut tells me that with OK being as close as it is, it will be the story of the night getting all of the updates.

      If MO, SC, Delaware and AZ are run-aways, the press will focus on OK being a slugfest, and whoever comes out on top will get alot of pundit speak.

      It should be fun to watch. As close as it suggests, I'm happy to see Edwards in the lead but we all know it could still be Clark at the end of the night.

      •  if it really does look like (none)
        a 3-way tie in OK tonight, won't that be the story?  Not that one person eked out a "win"?

        I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat. -- Will Rogers

        by Kathleen in CO on Tue Feb 03, 2004 at 06:51:03 PM PST

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