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View Diary: Exit polls (300 comments)

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  •  I believe (none)
    to get delegates in any stae, a candidate must hit 15% in some congressional district.

    Someone correct me if I'm wrong...

    •  There are several (none)
      There are several congressional districts in Washington where Kucinich will break 15%.  He will probably be near that statewide.
    •  My understanding as a WA voter (none)
      To get delegates at the precinct level, you need 15% in that precinct.

      Whether that translates into a delegate at the state level depends. Delegates from the precinct level go to both the county and legislative district conventions.

      At the legislative district meeting, a portion of the delegates to the state convention are selected. At the county level, a portion of delegates are sent on to the state level. Each delegate needs to exceed the 15% threshold.

      Seattle proper is liberal enough that Kucinich will likely get 20% of the vote. Remember, the 7th district is progressive enough that the Republicans didn't bother to run a candidate in 2000 against Congressman for life Democrat Jim McDermott, but the Green Party ran Joe Swazja and got 20%. Kucinich is likely to get at least those people if they show up at the caucuses. I wouldn't be surprised if he got 30%. Dean has more strength, and Kerry and Edwards might get a surge from today's results, but Kucinich is likely to beat a couple of those people in Seattle no matter what.

      So I'd be surprised if he doesn't get at least one delegate from the 7th district. But this might not show up on Saturday because statewide his numbers are likely to be below the threshold.

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