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View Diary: New AP Poll: Iraq War Support 37%, Support for Dissent 87% (260 comments)

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  •  40% (4.00)
    I always use 40% as somewhat of a marker line in polls.  That's because to me there's a very simplistic model of the electorate that basically says there's 40% who are die-hard republicans, 40% who are die-hard democrats, and 20% in the middle.

    In general, if you look at election campaigns going back to the 60's, this is about what you see.  Even the truly bad and ridiculous campaigns (Goldwater, Dole, Dukakis, Mondale, GHW Bush) never really go below that 40% line.

    So that's why the 37% poll number is interesting to me.  That says that Dubya is either at the point where the only support he has are die-hard republicans who wouldn't even consider voting for another party ... or that he's starting to actually lose the support of some of these people.

    Depends on how you look at the margin of error.  37% plus/minus 3 or 4% is basically forty percent.  But then, you can also look at it as saying that about 8% of the Republican party die-hard faithful voters are starting to say Bush sucks.  Remember, that error could go the other way and Bush could really be down at around 32%.

    On withdraw, its basically the opposite.  This is largely saying that almost all of the Democratic voters have moved to saying that we should get out now.  But the middle is still with the republicans in buying the Pottery Barn theory.  That's a bit simplistic, as some of the Libertarian and true-conservative voters are also moving in favor of withdrawal.  But still, most of those out-now voters would likely be Democratic voters.

    Considering that voices arguing for withdrawal are still very rare in the corporate media, while the airwaves are constantly full of propaganda arguing that we must stay and fix it, this is still a very significant part of the electorate that has abandoned the "we must stay the course" argument.  Its also encouraging in that to me it says a substantial part of the electorate has stopped listening to the corporate media propaganda machine.  That's a vital pre-requisite to Democratic victories in the age of near-fascist corporate media.

    And it also says that in absolutely every Democratic Primary in 2006, we must have an anti-war/withdrawal now canidate.  I think this poll says those candidates would mop the floor with the Democratic morons who want us to stay in this mess.

    The Democratic Party has had absolutely disasterous leadership for over a decade now.  Their only victory was over a pathetic Dole campaign when they had the power of the incumbancy.  This is looking like a prime opportunity to kick this whole bunch of losers out of the party and end their self-crippling influence on the party.

    Do this right, and the Democratic Party can both get back to a position of being the political voice of everyday ordinary Americans, and also become victorious again.

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