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View Diary: An Economy On the Brink (153 comments)

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  •  ENERGY --> Oil Production from Gulf (none)
    From Reuters: (Cnn)

    Gulf oil and gas production recovering
    Almost 70 percent of Gulf oil production remains shut, an improvement from 79 percent Saturday.
    September 5, 2005: 2:15 PM EDT

    NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Shut in U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production was still at 69.57 percent and natural gas output shut in at 52.25 percent on Monday, improving from Saturday's 78.98 percent for oil and 57.779 percent for natural gas, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said in a report.

    That left 1.043 million barrels per day of crude shut in from the region's 1.5 million bpd capacity, MMS said. On Saturday, the total shut in was at 1.185 million bpd.

    About 5.225 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production remained shut of the region's 10 bcfd capacity. The shut-in total was at 5.780 bcfd on Saturday.

    Since Aug. 26, the cumulative shut in totals due to Hurricane Katrina stood at 11.985 million barrels of oil and 64.08 bcf of gas.

    The nearly 12mil bpd of losty production is approximately equal to the total production of the U.S. in 1 day.  This shortfall of crude production feeds into the refinery chain and has led to numerous refineries having to SLOW their total daily production in an effort to prevent having to shut down entirely if they run out of crude stock inventory.   Once a refinery goes offline, it take 5-7 days to bring it back up to full production again.

    Steve Gregory WeatherInsite

    by WeatherInsite on Mon Sep 05, 2005 at 03:04:47 PM PDT

    •  So Steve (none)
      How cold is the winter going to be?

      An off topic question,
      A columnist in our local rag stated that "scientists" have been saying hurricanes were becoming less frequent and less intense over the past four years.

      Is there any basis for this statement?

      •  LESS Frequent and intense Hurricanes ???? (none)
        Surely you mean MORE frequent and severe - right?

        There is some debate about what is driving the frequency increase -- but more and more, most scientists now believe the more intense storms are from the ocean warming.

        The frequency -- it varies every 30 years or so, and we've simply returned to the higher frequency that predominated in the 30's,40',s and 1950's.

        Cold Winter -->  That's a trade secret for now

        Steve Gregory WeatherInsite

        by WeatherInsite on Mon Sep 05, 2005 at 06:38:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Seriously (none)
          That's what the assole printed in the paper, bug time Bush defender.  I was so pissed of I wrote a letter that could never be published.  Every Hurricane Season forecast (not that I've been paying too much attention) was calling for increased frequency and intensity.  I just unloaded.  Now that I know I was right I'll write the editors and demand a clarification.  


        •  Less Intense (none)
          Here is a list of the most severe hurricanes of the last century

          The data ends in 2000, but climatologist tend to look at these trends over long periods of time, so we don't really know if the events of the past 5 years are a trend or an aberation.

          Whether or not we are seeing more severe hurricanes or more frequent is not a settled issue, there is still a lot of debate on both sides.

          •  MORER OR LESS HURRICANES (none)
            There really is NO debate that we are seeing more hurricanes -- the numbers are there for anyone to see.  NHC has gone on record numerous times telling people this very fact.  It's ther main toppioc of discussion during the winter when they are 'on the 'road'talking about hurridane awareness, saftey and need for people to realize the days of 'a few weak storms a year'are gone.  (1970-1987 very quiet)  

            What is at issue is whether this is the normal 'upswing' in activity that seems to occur every 25 years or so.  And to some extent, the  increase in the number of intense storms. OR is the total global warming thing 'man made'.

            There is an oscillation - well documented, of oceanic temps  in both the Atlantic and Pacific where the mean SST's oscillate from slightly cooler to slightly warmer, than 'average -- every 20-30 years.  This is some heavy duty scientific data/analysis of oceanic changes.  The 'flips' in SST also coinicides with the active periods of hurricanes, versus the 'quiet periods'.  (In other words: warmer temps = more storms and more intense ones)

            The Atlantic basin is now at the warmest level ever recorded, almost 1/2deg C above 'normal'.  That turns out is VERY important when it comes to long term averages for hurricane frequency & intensity.


            Steve Gregory WeatherInsite

            by WeatherInsite on Tue Sep 06, 2005 at 09:20:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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