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View Diary: An Economy On the Brink (153 comments)

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    Here is a list of the most severe hurricanes of the last century

    The data ends in 2000, but climatologist tend to look at these trends over long periods of time, so we don't really know if the events of the past 5 years are a trend or an aberation.

    Whether or not we are seeing more severe hurricanes or more frequent is not a settled issue, there is still a lot of debate on both sides.

      There really is NO debate that we are seeing more hurricanes -- the numbers are there for anyone to see.  NHC has gone on record numerous times telling people this very fact.  It's ther main toppioc of discussion during the winter when they are 'on the 'road'talking about hurridane awareness, saftey and need for people to realize the days of 'a few weak storms a year'are gone.  (1970-1987 very quiet)  

      What is at issue is whether this is the normal 'upswing' in activity that seems to occur every 25 years or so.  And to some extent, the  increase in the number of intense storms. OR is the total global warming thing 'man made'.

      There is an oscillation - well documented, of oceanic temps  in both the Atlantic and Pacific where the mean SST's oscillate from slightly cooler to slightly warmer, than 'average -- every 20-30 years.  This is some heavy duty scientific data/analysis of oceanic changes.  The 'flips' in SST also coinicides with the active periods of hurricanes, versus the 'quiet periods'.  (In other words: warmer temps = more storms and more intense ones)

      The Atlantic basin is now at the warmest level ever recorded, almost 1/2deg C above 'normal'.  That turns out is VERY important when it comes to long term averages for hurricane frequency & intensity.


      Steve Gregory WeatherInsite

      by WeatherInsite on Tue Sep 06, 2005 at 09:20:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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