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View Diary: Bryan Kennedy: Democratic Challenger to Sensenbrenner (87 comments)

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  •  Sensenbrenner may be an idiot (2.50)
    but Kennedy has no chance of winning, no matter what any of you think. A democrat will never win there just as a republican will never win in Madison or Milwaukee. If you want to support a democrat that can pic up a seat in WI, take a look at Jamie Wall,
    •  Paul Hackett (OH-02) (4.00)
      Republican districts will forever remain "safe" if they are never challenged.
    •  You don't win if you don't play (4.00)
      Don't get this logic of there's no chance to beat Sensenbrenner, so throw it all behind Jamie Wall up in Green Bay.

      This is not a binary, either/or world. The poitical scene can muster support for both of these guys.

      Take a look how candidates with enough effort and people can come from behind. 2006 is not 2004. Kennedy is getting more well known. Senenbrenner is getting more well known -- as an ass.

      Howard Dean himself at DemocracyFest in Austin back in June put his finger on removing Sensenbrenner from Congress. I think the Doctor knows a little bit about what he's talking about.

    •  The right kind of standard-bearer, win or lose (4.00)
      Sometimes we contest tough districts with me-too centrists who are afraid to show their party colors.

      Sometimes we run candidates who appeal to an atrophied local party base, but are downright damaging to party fortunes in the district -- leftwing eccentrics who lose proudly while reinforcing ingrained negative stereotypes of Democrats.

      Either way, we fail to improve our odds of taking the district in cycles to come.

      If you had to bet now, you'd have to bet Sensenbrenner to win ... but you'd also bet Kennedy to beat the point spread and improve our future prospects in the process.

      And sometimes an old bull, put to an unexpected challenge, runs amok and has to be put down.

      None Dare Call It Stupid!

      by RonK Seattle on Thu Sep 15, 2005 at 10:41:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not true (4.00)
      In 1994, Klug beat Kastenmeier in what used to be the 2nd, which included Madison. A lot of of Sensenbrenner's district is fiscally conservative and socially liberal. Feingold polled better than Kerry in WI overall, and I'd bet he outpolled Kennedy in that district.

      With huge deficits and threats to Roe v Wade among other things, there's a part of the GOP base that can be swung Democratic this cycle. Anecdotally, from friends who live there, parts of the district are moving to the left too, as the "white flight" generation ages and their kids and grand-kids (and the kids of the original suburbanites) become a larger chunk of the vote.

      The district may have gone more than 60-40 for Sensenbrenner last time, but Bush and the GOP have lost 10-15% in the polls and if that change holds in the district and Kennedy can exploit it, he can win. Maybe not a landslide, but I think it's doable.

      We all go a little mad sometimes - Norman Bates

      by badger on Thu Sep 15, 2005 at 12:09:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Binary thinking (4.00)
      won't get it done. It's not an either/or deal.

      And honestly, Jamie, much as I love the guy, is a longer shot than Bryan at this point; although his fundraising's been really really impressive, his name ID is still alarmingly low, and he's got a three-way primary to face against a self-funder and a former County Exec.

      Regardless, I have maintained in the past and still maintain -- more strongly than ever, in fact -- that both WI-05 and WI-08 are winnable races. Polling this past summer showed a high degree of discontent with Republicans in WI-08, and Gard, the presumptive R nominee, is not universally liked, to put it mildly.

      In WI-05, Sensenbrenner is stacking up the negatives, and Kennedy gained a lot of credibility from his '04 race -- and never really stopped campaigning. He's always seen it as a two-cycle effort.

      Lots of positives here -- these are both examples of districts where, with serious and sustained effort, we could pull off wins...

      And even if we don't, we give the R's fits and tie up effort and cash that could otherwise be used to defend their more vulnerable seats...

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