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View Diary: A Baucus Betrayal (433 comments)

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  •  A year and change ahead of the election (none)
    You better expect the challenger to lag in name recognition and polls behind a multi-term Senator, unless your nominee is someone super-well known like Bob Casey.

    There's no reason to think this won't be a very competitive race.

    •  I expect it to be competitive (none)
      and never said otherwise. But in an offyear election, against an incumbent who is worthless but not that controversial, I don't really expect a win, although I hope that he's defeated. It's just that after last year, after hearing over and over that Coburn would easily lose, Murkowski would easily lose, I no longer have any faith in these voters to do the right thing. I think that just because we want something to be true, we tell ourselves something over and over and then we're shattered when it doesn't happen.
      •  Those GoOpers all got a huge Bush bounce (none)
        At the end of the day a lot of voters who told pollsters they were undecided or soft-Dem voted GOP as a big "fuck you" to Kerry, who was a disaster at the top of the ticket in those states.
        •  True to a point, but (none)
          Murkowski won because of Ted Stevens cutting ads for her. Coburn wiped the floor with Carson. So there were other factors. I think the only one who really won because of Bush being on the ticket was Mel Martinez. Which is ironic since all the pundits thought that he was going to be the reason Bush won Florida. Instead he revealed himself as such a bile-spewing bigot that he could barely even win the most conservative parts of Florida.

          In a lot of states ,local issues and local personalities are a key factor.

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