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View Diary: URGENT - HURRICANE RITA NOW CATASTROPHIC CAT 5 HURRICANE (334 comments)

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  •  NOAA's update (none)
    has pressure at 920
    link

    Give me Liberty or give me death!

    by guyermo on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 11:21:00 AM PDT

    •  Wow. (none)
      Wasn't it around 968mb last night? I'm not a meterologist but a drop of over 40mb in less than a day means that is really gaining strength fast.
      •  well, when i went to bed last night (none)
        it wasn't even a Cat 3.  When i woke up, it was a mid strength Cat 4.

        Give me Liberty or give me death!

        by guyermo on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 11:32:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Can we pretty much assume... (none)
          ...that, given the temperature of the water in the Gulf these days, that essentially EVERY hurricane will reach CAT 5 by the time it makes landfall?
          •  not necessarily (none)
            Nope. There are many variables, including what other weather fronts interact with it and the temperature should be dropping from now on. The peak season ended a couple of days ago, and Katrina did cause the temps to drop a bit, and Rita should continue that trend, I would think.
          •  No but yes (none)
            I think most storms in the Gulf from August-October will have a likelihood of reaching major hurricane status. But, too many variables are at play. As long as strong Highs build over the Gulf and points North, there will be bad hurricanes in the Gulf.

            "I'm looking forward to a good night's sleep on the soil of a friend." Oh and I blog with gusto!

            by Chris Copy Editor on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 12:25:54 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  the large scale atmospheric conditions (none)
              mustn't have much shear in wind speed from near the surface to upper levels (say 30-40,000 feet or so), or the thunderstorms that are the thermal engine to sustain a tropical circulation get torn apart enough to prevent things from getting organized.  So high pressure aloft and no jet stream near the path are pretty much requirements for sustaining and strengthening a hurricane.

              Strong hurricanes feed back on the large scale too; I think they may tend to make their own favorable environments unless some strong mid-latitude thing, like a cold front, associated with a jet stream shifting southward toward the tropical system, disrupt things.

              Be a patriot...Buy a hybrid vehicle!

              by billlaurelMD on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 12:34:04 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  OK (4.00)
              here's the format going forward. Steve is swamped, it's all he can do to manage his database and make forecasts to send to his paying clients. He's going to give us complimentary access to bullet points at no charge as a public service. I'll pass that exclusive stuff on in future posts as needed. If you use that info on other sites. please provide a link and attirubution.

              I'll recycle another hurriance thread later tonight if conditions warrant.

              Read UTI, your free thought forum

              by DarkSyde on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 12:34:38 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Latest live update from the hurricane chaser plane (none)
      Measures the pressure at 900.
      •  Link? (none)

        cheers,

        Mitch Gore

        Nobody will change America for you, you have to work to make it happen

        by Lestatdelc on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 02:15:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Ditto (none)
        This is hard to believe that it dropped another 14mb and would be deeper than Katrina this fast. Where did you get that information, Lefty?

        The optimist thinks this is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears it is true. J. Robert Oppenheimer

        by captainlaser on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 03:12:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Link (none)
          here

          RECON Report 904mb -- -10mb drop in 1 hour -- that is a record.

          Fuck.

          "Too many policemen, no liberty; Too many soldiers, no peace; Too many lawyers, no justice." Lin Yutang (1895-1976)

          by ogre on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 03:40:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  One thing no one needs... (none)
            is a hurricane intent on setting records.

            A 10 mb drop in an hour?  Shit.  There's no reason to believe that the sampling period captured the bottom of the drop.

            I know nearly nada about hurricanes.  But that sounds like Rita... is going to become a really, really mean bitch.

            I used to live in Houston, have friends and family scattered across Texas.  Please, folks, get the hell out of the way.  This Rita is not lovely Rita, meter maid....

            "Too many policemen, no liberty; Too many soldiers, no peace; Too many lawyers, no justice." Lin Yutang (1895-1976)

            by ogre on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 03:44:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Crap... (none)
              the previous update observed:

              The pressure has been dropping at 6mb/hr which may be s some form of record of it's own

              If 6 mb/hr was a record...

              and now they're seeing 10 mb/hr...

              And Katrina only was measured down to 902, and Rita's down to 904 already....

              Rita looks like she's aiming for a record low pressure reading, to beat the Galveston hurricane.

              "Too many policemen, no liberty; Too many soldiers, no peace; Too many lawyers, no justice." Lin Yutang (1895-1976)

              by ogre on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 03:51:44 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

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