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  •  well, when i went to bed last night (none)
    it wasn't even a Cat 3.  When i woke up, it was a mid strength Cat 4.

    Give me Liberty or give me death!

    by guyermo on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 11:32:42 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Can we pretty much assume... (none)
      ...that, given the temperature of the water in the Gulf these days, that essentially EVERY hurricane will reach CAT 5 by the time it makes landfall?
      •  not necessarily (none)
        Nope. There are many variables, including what other weather fronts interact with it and the temperature should be dropping from now on. The peak season ended a couple of days ago, and Katrina did cause the temps to drop a bit, and Rita should continue that trend, I would think.
      •  No but yes (none)
        I think most storms in the Gulf from August-October will have a likelihood of reaching major hurricane status. But, too many variables are at play. As long as strong Highs build over the Gulf and points North, there will be bad hurricanes in the Gulf.

        "I'm looking forward to a good night's sleep on the soil of a friend." Oh and I blog with gusto!

        by Chris Copy Editor on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 12:25:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  the large scale atmospheric conditions (none)
          mustn't have much shear in wind speed from near the surface to upper levels (say 30-40,000 feet or so), or the thunderstorms that are the thermal engine to sustain a tropical circulation get torn apart enough to prevent things from getting organized.  So high pressure aloft and no jet stream near the path are pretty much requirements for sustaining and strengthening a hurricane.

          Strong hurricanes feed back on the large scale too; I think they may tend to make their own favorable environments unless some strong mid-latitude thing, like a cold front, associated with a jet stream shifting southward toward the tropical system, disrupt things.

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          by billlaurelMD on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 12:34:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  OK (4.00)
          here's the format going forward. Steve is swamped, it's all he can do to manage his database and make forecasts to send to his paying clients. He's going to give us complimentary access to bullet points at no charge as a public service. I'll pass that exclusive stuff on in future posts as needed. If you use that info on other sites. please provide a link and attirubution.

          I'll recycle another hurriance thread later tonight if conditions warrant.

          Read UTI, your free thought forum

          by DarkSyde on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 12:34:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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