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View Diary: The Angry Atlantic - It's So Going to Get Worse (122 comments)

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  •  It's fascinating, but... (4.00)
    ...linear extrapolation doesn't seem like an appropriate way to predict future activity.

    For instance, take storm frequency.  There are more variables that need to be considered, and I'm not even a scientist.  Like length of season.  We could make some assumptions that that will widen, based upon water temperatures growing warmer earlier and staying warmer longer.  But still, the hurricane season will be finite.  Right now, a fast-moving hurricane seems to cover a distance equivalent its own diameter in about a day.  That means that a hurricane a day would find hurricanes right on top of each other, which is impossible given that the water temp needs to warm and refresh after being churned by a storm.  I don't know how long that takes in days, but I do wonder given the minimum refresh cycle whether it is possible to squeeze 24 hurricanes into a hurricane season -- particularly when they are of the magnitude you're theorizing they will be.

    "The American people will trust the Democratic Party to defend America when they believe that Democrats will defend other Democrats." Wesley Clark

    by The Termite on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 04:53:20 PM PDT

    •  Dude (none)
      I hope you're right, but it's pretty clear that we're entering the age of the megastorm, the megadrought, the megawinter -- Big Momma Nature's about to show us who's boss, and you don't need a weatherman to show you which way the wind blows on this one.  

      In every stage of these Oppressions...: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated Injury." DoI, TJ

      by ChuckLin on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 05:54:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Don't get me wrong (none)
        I agree.  I'm just pointing out a way a diarist I respect might shore up the credibility of a very interesting diary.

        Not in denial about how significant these weather events seem to be at all.

        "The American people will trust the Democratic Party to defend America when they believe that Democrats will defend other Democrats." Wesley Clark

        by The Termite on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 07:52:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The Hurricane Season (none)

          Officially, it's six months, from June 1 to November 30.

          Realistically, it's all over the place.

          So far in 2005, there have been 18 storms since June 8 (it's now September 21), or an average one storm every 5.8 days.

          In 2004, 15 storms materialized between August 1 and November 30.

          That's one every 8 days.

          2003 was a weird year, in that the first of 18 storms appeared in April 20 and the last on December 7, an unusually long season, and an average 1 storm every 18 days.

          I submit that the Atlantic hurricane season is neither fixed in duration, nor is the refresh cycle set in stone.

          If I had to place absolute limit on the maximum number of storms, I'd put the figure at somewhere around 35.

          It's only Nero-esque if the city is burning. :)

          by cskendrick on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 08:11:57 PM PDT

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    •  Not linear. Curvilinear. (4.00)
      A straight-line interpolation is indeed useless.

      I'll accept the critique that 100 years is an awfully long distance to forecast, but hey. Everybody's doing it. :)

      It's only Nero-esque if the city is burning. :)

      by cskendrick on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 06:00:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Curvilinear (none)
        is just as useless in this case.  I hate to rain on the parade, and don't intend to be snarky, but these projections are not valid in the least.  

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