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View Diary: The Angry Atlantic - It's So Going to Get Worse (122 comments)

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  •  I actually attempted that in my workpapers (none)
    But the historical peaks and troughs in the data were of such unpredictable intensity and duration is was just noise for the forecast.

    Something I've been contemplating, though, is running parallel trends on just the local minima on the one hand, and the local maxima on the other, to establish a trend "channel", and use these markers as guide rails -- the idea being that a forecast pushing past these marks would be constrained, then incrementally reverse slope (troughs bottom out, then peaks begin, peaks top off, then troughs begin, etc.).

    It's only Nero-esque if the city is burning. :)

    by cskendrick on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 04:38:08 AM PDT

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