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View Diary: House Races to Defend (with Ranking) (155 comments)

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  •  Kerry (none)
    Also, as the OP explained, he used Kerry's and Gore's numbers, combined. Do you think it would be wiser to leave out Kerry altogether?

    I am sure that the OP could re-run his spreadsheet and change any number of variables. I doubt, however, that knocking out Kerry's numbers entirely would change this list all that much.

    •  I think it might be better (none)
      to run a composite of gore's numbers and senate races in those districts.  That won't be the best but, I just think Kerry's numbers skew things too much because of the ridiculous divide in the urban rural vote totals.  The only incumbant to lose in the last election was Baron P. Hill who was in a psycho conservative district.  If texas hadn't been redistricted we would have picked up seats in the house.  

      I understand the point about most vulnurable but I can't understand the ranking considering that, yes, chet edwards is somewhat vulnurable but Salazaar really isn't at all and is far to high on the list.  

      Maybe I'm just being pedantic but I don't think the model takes into account enough variables.  The list would be far shorter if it took into account the vote totals in those districts for Kerry in comparison to the vote totals for the democrat that won.

      Our virtues are usually only our vices in disguise. La Rochefoucauld

      by Parmenides on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 07:44:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh yea (none)
        Your right I can't think of any that aren't on the list.

        Our virtues are usually only our vices in disguise. La Rochefoucauld

        by Parmenides on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 07:45:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Senate races (none)
        I considered using them as well, but didn't for two reasons:
        1. The district by district data is much harder to come by--especially 2000 Senate results for current districts (post-2002 remap); and
        2. Senate races are largely cult of personality.  Would anyone advocate using Linc Chafee's numbers to suggest that either Rhode Island district is in peril?  Also, too many Senate races are uncontested blowouts.  In my other thread, Bryan Kennedy backers were making the case that Sensenbrenner is vulnerable because Herb Kohl (who took 62% statewide) won the district.  This is not to say that Kennedy isn't a great candidate (he is) or that Sensenbrenner isn't an asshole who is out of touch (he is), but that district is a dog however you cut it.
        As I saw it, there were three options for using the Senate figures: 1. use them straight up, and biases be damned; 2. adjust them to a 50-50 race, which would have the effect of artificially making every state 50-50.  I adjust the presidential figures to a 50-50 race nationally, which doesn't distort, but adjusting each state to 50-50 can't be right; or 3. adjust the figures to whatever the state's presidential split was, which I view as the best option, but then the figure is again tied to Presidential percentages.
        Also, people are more likely to choose a House rep. (who is less familiar to most) based on their self-identification with a party, which in turn is typically reached based on presidential voting.  This is one reason that voting for House races (but not Senate races) tends to track presidential voting (and perceptions of the chief executive in the case of midterms).
      •  Incidentally (none)
        after I nationally adjusted the Kerry numbers for a 50-50 race, his district-by-district numbers were in the vast majority of cases within a point or two of Gore's either way.  

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