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View Diary: Fox pegs Bush at 36 (314 comments)

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  •  asdf (4.00)
    The really interesting number is the independents - it keeps rolling steadily downward.  Even the Republican number has been falling since October.  

    The 10% Dems, more likely than not, are oldschool Dixiecrats who are too set in their ways to change their party affiliation.  Zellocrats, more likely than not.

    "Man's capacity for justice makes democracy possible; but man's inclination to injustice makes democracy necessary." - Reinhold Niebuhr

    by Mahanoy on Thu Nov 10, 2005 at 04:44:24 PM PST

    •  Yes (4.00)
      It's the indies we need to keep aiming for. Forget the Zellocrats.

      York, PA is where the USA began - and where we will start to take it back

      by joeotter on Thu Nov 10, 2005 at 04:50:03 PM PST

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      •  Exactly (4.00)
        The independents are the key - if we can bring them to our camp and show them the future, BushCo is in serious trouble.  The fact of the matter is that the hardcore conservative/neocon/strict constructionist/theocratic movement is a minority in this country, and they can't win national elections without hiding that agenda and convincing enough independents to join them.

        Win over the independents, defeat BushCo.

        By the way - are you in York?  I grew up near Harrisburg and went to school in Gettysburg.  I haven't been to the White Rose City in years!

        "Man's capacity for justice makes democracy possible; but man's inclination to injustice makes democracy necessary." - Reinhold Niebuhr

        by Mahanoy on Thu Nov 10, 2005 at 04:56:55 PM PST

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        •  Yep (none)
          I live in Shrewsbury in south York Co.. I'm also running for Congress against the GOP incumbant, Todd Platts and a Dem un-bubba professor for the primary.

          The Dover thing has been a blast.

          York, PA is where the USA began - and where we will start to take it back

          by joeotter on Thu Nov 10, 2005 at 05:12:22 PM PST

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          •  When I hear the name Shrewsbury (none)
            I automatically think of Brother Cadfæl.

            cheers,

            Mitch Gore

            Nobody will change America for you, you have to work to make it happen

            by Lestatdelc on Thu Nov 10, 2005 at 05:22:55 PM PST

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          •  Glad to know you! (none)
            I have a friend from Shrewsbury - lovely country down there near the border.

            I've been watching the Dover trial very closely - I have family in the district and they've been livid with the school board.  I was glad to see them voted out.  I haven't talked to them yet, but I'm sure they're very excited.  I was surprised to see a press conference at the school when the trial first started - they were standing on the baseball field where I got my first win as a high school pitcher!  Small world.

            Good luck in your primary!

            "Man's capacity for justice makes democracy possible; but man's inclination to injustice makes democracy necessary." - Reinhold Niebuhr

            by Mahanoy on Thu Nov 10, 2005 at 05:31:10 PM PST

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          •  What are the feelings down there towards Todd? (none)
            I'm in Mechanicsburg, Cumberland County.  Best wishes to ya....hope you can beat Todd.  He's a shrub lover.  Yech!
            •  Todd (none)
              I worked the polls in Shrewsbury on Tuesday. Most people still seem to like Todd but one fellow, a GOP "big guy," was real glad to meet me and that someone was taking him on. My problem is I've been trying to reach out to Republicans but the "latte" left in my party is getting mad at me for doing so. Many of my friends and family are Republicans. How can I hate them? They have the same problems we do. They just see things in a different way. We should not hold that against them. After all, we are all Americans.

              York, PA is where the USA began - and where we will start to take it back

              by joeotter on Thu Nov 10, 2005 at 07:04:02 PM PST

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              •  I know exactly what you mean (none)
                Especially given where you are - you have to reach out to Republicans in order to get anywhere.  I'm from Perry County, so I know all about the typical Republican voter in central PA, and you don't win them over by refusing to meet them at least somewhat on their terms.  But you can do that without abandoning your principles, and from what I read over at your website it looks like you're doing a good job of that.

                "Man's capacity for justice makes democracy possible; but man's inclination to injustice makes democracy necessary." - Reinhold Niebuhr

                by Mahanoy on Thu Nov 10, 2005 at 07:50:14 PM PST

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              •  Hey Joe....... (none)
                I recently moved from Harrisburg City to Mechanicsburg, and that puts me in the 19th.  I can help you out in Cumberland County.  I'll send you an email.
        •  Comparing poll statistics (none)
          is very revealing. I would put the approval actually in the low 30s because of the make up of the people questioned!

          Bush Approval:

          The recent Pew poll:

          Overall 36%
               Dem 12%
               Rep. 77%
               Ind. 29%

          The Fox Poll:

          Overall: 36%
          Dem 10%
          Rep. 72%
          Ind 25%

          Why do I think the approval is significantly lower? The percentages of the party breakdown that Fox uses is significantly different from Pew:

          Pew affiliation breakdown:
          Dem: 34%
          Rep. 28%
          Ind. 31%

          Fox affiliation breakdown:
          Dem: 38%
          Rep. 34%
          Ind 20%

          The Fox breakdown had a lower approval rate by Republicans (72%) vs Pew Republicans approval (77%). But the Fox numbers still have the percentage of Republicans (34%) (self-identified) much higher than in the Pew poll (28%). So, even with a higher percentage of Republicans, they STILL ended up with about the same approval rating as the Pew poll (overall 36%).

          In additon, the fact that Fox's poll had only 20% Indepdendent vs Pew's 31% is particularly significant. Fox is saying that independent's have an even lower approval rate of Bush (25%) than Pew's Republicans (29%) BUT in its poll these indepdendents take up a much smaller percentage of Fox's pool (20% vs 31%). If the Fox percentages were closer to the third of the pool population, Bush's approval rating would definitely be dragged lower by at least a couple of points.

          So, I agree with you people who say the Fox's numbers are artificially inflated. I don't know if this affiliation breakdown is typical of fox's polls or if they usually have a higher independent level in the past (when independents may have been polling more like Republicans). They are certainly not doing that now!

          "Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph." (T. Paine)

          by dmmteacher on Thu Nov 10, 2005 at 07:27:39 PM PST

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          •  Um.... (none)
            During the '04 elections Gallup and other were using polls with much more Republicans than Dems.

            Why are FOX and Pew using more Dems than Repubs now?

            York, PA is where the USA began - and where we will start to take it back

            by joeotter on Thu Nov 10, 2005 at 07:36:52 PM PST

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            •  Interesting (none)
              I am trying to remember some questions about affiliation.

              Are the surveys consistently asking: are REGISTERED Democrat, Republican, Indep.?

              Are the surveys asking: How did you vote in the 2004 election (as a Democrat, Republican, Indep.)

              Are the surveys asking: Do you CONSIDER yourself Democrat, Republican, Indep.

              Did polls change their percentages based on the 2004 election results to supposedly more closely represent the population?

              Are fewer people wanting to acknowledge themselves as Republicans and/or calling themselves Democrats or Independents? (I personally would LOVE if this were true!)

              I certainly don't know about polling procedures to explain the change in the percentage balances in polls. Just throwing some ideas out.

              "Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph." (T. Paine)

              by dmmteacher on Thu Nov 10, 2005 at 07:52:36 PM PST

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      •  Agreed (none)
        However, we have most of them already.  Or, more precisely, Bush has lost them.
      •  Yes, they're. (none)
        They're the tipping point in any ellection.

        Revelation is the best revenge. - J. C.

        by ysbee on Thu Nov 10, 2005 at 05:15:09 PM PST

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