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View Diary: Republicans Suffer From Bush: US Map Trending Blue (150 comments)

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  •  A Definite Possibility (none)
    Considering the results of the Diageo/Hotline poll that also was released yesterday, showing that among Republicans, the two most preferred potential candidates (barely edging out McCain) are Rudy Giuliani and Condi Rice, both of whom would be anathema to the social-policy wingnuts in the south, plains and mountain states, the possibility of a third-party split (Constitution Party, anyone?) would definitely have to be considered.  Personally, I doubt either Rice or Giuliani could ever successfully make it through the GOP primaries, but if somehow either one were to make it onto the ticket -- even in the VP slot -- the social conservatives would either bolt or stay home and sit on their hands.

    Here are PDFs of the GOP preference section of the poll and of the full poll results, which would have to read as another demonstration that Bush's base is beginning to fracture, with 41% of self-identified GOPers saying that things in this country are going seriously off on the wrong track.  The highest figure ever previously recorded under Bush was 29%.  Overall, 66% said that we're on the wrong track (84% among Dems and 76%(!) among independents).

    Surprisingly, even 11% of Republicans think that the country would be better off if the Democrats controlled Congress.  Only 8% of independents said the same thing in the GOP's favor, while 37% thought that it would be better for the Dems to control Congress.  Oddly, though, this didn't entirely carry through to the generic congressional ballot, where the Dems only held a six-point edge, down from nine points a month ago.

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