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View Diary: More Purple Fingers, to What End? (140 comments)

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  •  he has sunni support (none)
    he's managed to include prominent sunnis  like former Pres.Ghazi Al Yawer and Adnan Pachachi in his list .So expect him to support from moderate sunnis.

    O'BRIEN: What if Jesus got this card? Would he be angry about it? He's be OK with it, wouldn't he? DONOHUE: Well, maybe he would, but I've never met him

    by PoliMorf on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 12:47:42 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for that... (none)
      ..it makes more sense now.
    •  Although I still don't get the numbers... (none)
      ...You hear talk that the minority Sunni population is 20-25%.  The moderate portion of that group, who will also choose not to vote for one of the Sunni lists, can't be all that high.  

      I would guess it adds up to maybe 10-15% of the population.  Can't be that much of a boost.  If he wins, and they attribute it to Anbar, Diyala, and Salahaddin Sunnis, I'll be suspicious.

      Well, I'll be suspicious no matter what happens, truth be told.

      •  moderate shia (none)
        throw in moderate shia and he could get 20-25% and end up the 2nd largest group after the UIA which might get 45%.

        O'BRIEN: What if Jesus got this card? Would he be angry about it? He's be OK with it, wouldn't he? DONOHUE: Well, maybe he would, but I've never met him

        by PoliMorf on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 04:37:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I saw... (none)
          predicted 38% in the Reuters report today.  Boggled my mind.  Because they still predicted 46 or 48% for UIA.  So what happened to that enormous Kurd vote?  And the Sunni hardline lists?  
          •  dont know where they're getting that (none)
            my personal prediction is

            UIA about 45%

            Allawi 20-25%

            Kurds 15-20%

            Sunni bloc 10-15%

            O'BRIEN: What if Jesus got this card? Would he be angry about it? He's be OK with it, wouldn't he? DONOHUE: Well, maybe he would, but I've never met him

            by PoliMorf on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 04:50:43 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sympathy for a dead thread... (none)
              ...this Juan Cole bit seems to confirm my suspicions that the Sunni Allawi-supporters talk was fabricated bullshit.

              One thing seems pretty clear at this point: Iyad Allawi is highly unlikely to be prime minister. His people were putting around rumors that a lot of Sunnis would vote for him, or that the Shiites of the south had turned against the fundamentalist Shiite UIA. The early returns aren't showing either allegation to have been true. As for Ahmad Chalabi, his Iraqi National Accord seems to have sunk without a trace as far as early leaked returns are showing. These "secular" candidates with close ties to the US CIA and Pentagon just are not very popular in Iraq, except among a thin sliver of the urban middle classes to whom US officials and journalists are most likely to talk.

              The results he describes in his post today (12-17) seem more in line with what you'd think would happen.

              But give "them" a couple weeks to tweak the results...

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