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View Diary: IL-06: Duckworth v Cegelis (270 comments)

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  •  How involved do you have to be? (none)
    When you live next door, even though you might not be a local favorite, you tend to know a thing or two about the local dynamics.

    Both how to work with them, and against them. You know the strong points and the weak. How to help them, and how to beat them if necessary.

    If Rahm's "emissaries" were rebuffed when he expected them to be welcomed, that would perhaps speak to a lack of understanding or knowledge of local conditions. But what is it that makes us think this "rebuff" was a surprise to him? Wouldn't sending such "emissaries" be purely pro forma, regardless?

    •  no (4.00)
      and if you look at the contours of the district, you will see how rahm's district is just barely contiguous with her district.  o'hare seperates them.  and there is a huge socioeconomic divide between the districts.  rahm is an urban candidate whose district extends into reliably democratic suburbs in the inner ring of the metro area.  in fact, i was surprised he represents the suburbs he does.  the terrain in cegelis's district is very suburban and very middle to upper middle class.  it is the difference between an urban community of yuppies and a suburban community of mall shoppers.  

      i understand everyone wants to attribute some kind of master plan, but the bungled reception of duckworth should be a signal that this is a big and controversial mistake.  although i agree with emanuel's campaign strategies, i disagree with this manoeuvre.  and i do not believe it is worth anyone's time to try to attribute motives to his actions.

    •  Rahm has no clue (none)
      the 6th was beneath his notice before Cegelis showed him it could be won.  He doesn't know squat about the 6th.  He just wants to take the credit for the win.
      •  And if he gets it? (none)
        How much will he know about what is and isn't possible in the 6th, versus what Cegelis fans know?
        •  Maybe because (4.00)
          many of the Cegelis fans posting here actually live in her district?  Not me, but there are others.  And many posters have been knocking on doors in the district, talking to people, getting signatures for Cegelis?  And many have been marching in parades and doing other visibility efforts?  Perhaps that gives them some understanding of the district that Rahm doesn't have from his fly-overs?
          •  What will they have "known?" (none)
            If they've bet on their certitude that Cegelis was the one and only candidate suited for the district, but she loses the primary and Duckworth is elected, what can we say they "knew" about the dynamics of the 6th that Rahm didn't?

            They knew where those doors were that they knocked on, but not what kind of voters were really behind them?

            What you're addressing is an entirely different question -- that is, how good a bet it may or may not be to assume that Rahm "knows" anything. What I'm addressing is that it's a bet that's not as insane to make as, say, that Zell Miller understands the district better than Cegelis fans.

            The question of who actually "knows" what will answer itself in due time.

      •  Are you drunk? (none)
        This is an open seat race in a district where John Kerry took 47% of the vote. This was going to be contested whether or not Cegelis got 44% in 2004 or 24%.
    •  enough! (none)
      When you live next door, even though you might not be a local favorite, you tend to know a thing or two about the local dynamics.

      When you don't live here at all, you probably know nothing about local dynamics. (That's for you, Kagro X. Don't know any way to soft-peddle it.)

      ================================== ================================== ======

      Rahm Emanuel might represent IL-5, but he doesn't know Illinois. He's been essentially a DC resident for the last 12 years.

      Before that, he's always been a northside near the lakefront kind of guy. The changes between his neighborhood and the DuPage County line are immense.

      You obviously don't know the street here. Please do some research, listen to some folks who do, and give us just a little bit of credit.

      If Tammy Duckworth gets labelled as Rahm Emanuel's candidate (uh, isn't this obvious), the indies and weak GOP voters in DuPage and northwest Cook will not begin to consider voting for her.

      BushIsWeak.com ... somebody really ought to register this domain name ...

      by wystler on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 06:20:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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