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View Diary: DC Dems starting to see the light? (82 comments)

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  •  Re: senate races (none)
    In 2006, Dems will certainly have their share of seats to defend.  However, you neglected a few of their opportunities.  Dems have a likely pick-up in PA and could be highly competitive in VA, TN, TX, RI, MT, MO and MS.  Of course, not all of these races are going to develop and Dems will probably have to watch the backs of some of their freshmen, but 2006 is not so bad, really.

    PA- As has been mentioned, Santorum should be a top target.  With a candidate like Hafer in the race and with Santorum's conservative baggage, there's no reason he should win.

    VA- The Allen-Warner race has been in the works for years.  It ought to be a close one, provided that Warner maintains his popularity.

    TN- Frist has said he is planning on retiring.  The current match-up looks to be Rep. Ford, Jr. v. wingnut Rep. Zach Wamp.  Ford, being a charismatic centrist could have a strong shot.

    RI- Dems ought to really try hard to compete for this district.  They could win soley by pointing out that Chafee votes for the wrong party for majority leader.  The problem, though, is that Dems have had a terrible time running statewide recently, having lost the gubernatorial race for the third time in a row.

    MO- While many politicians in MO (particularly its legislature) are very conservative, the state is still a swing state.  In fact, if Blunt wins the guv race, there could be a backlash because the representation would be far more conservative than fits a state with such big urban/suburban centers.  If Claire McCaskill narrowly loses to Blunt, I could see her making a strong comeback race against Talent for the U.S. senate seat.  LG Mawell would also make a good candidate.

    TX- KBH is rumored to be lusting after the governor's chair.  If she does retire, Dems could have a good shot at this seat with one of their former dem congressmen who was redistricted out of office this year like Jim Turner (or one of the others, if they lose).  With Bush defeated (knock on wood) and with the TX Republican party in turmoil, a dem could win this.

    MS- Trent Lott is likely to retire and Democrats have a great candidate if former Attorney General Michael Moore decides to run.  Rumor has it, though, that Pickering is planning on giving it another shot.

    •  Re: Senate (none)
      I was suprised not to see anyone mention Sen. Jon Kyl. He may face Gov. Janet Napolitano in 2006. With Napolitano, that race would go to the top of the board. Even if Napolitano does not run, look for former State AG Grant Woods, who recently dumped the GOP. Kyl also has a voting record that would match that of any of the craziest GOP Senator. He does not gel with McCain.

      Also, don't forget the dumbest Senator (tied with Jim Bunning), Sen. Conrad Burns of Montana. He won by only four points in 2000 with Bush carrying the state by 58-33. Democrats will pick up the governorship there this year and they gained a number of seats in the legislature in 2002. It seems Montana is not a solidly GOP as some GOPers had thought.

      •  Kyl (none)
        Oops...I forgot that Kyl was up for reelection in 2006.  We ought to have a good challenger for that uninspiring conservative.  

        Of course, we should also keep our eye on Montana.  I meant to mention that one as well.  

        In any case, the senate is always going to be a tough row to hoe for democrats since there are so many sparsely-populated rural states with Republican leanings.  If D.C. ever gets senate representation, though, things could be ballanced out a little more.

    •  Senate Seats (none)
      I agree on Pennsylvania, Warner has to avoid what happened to Wilder (and, to a lesser extent, Chuck Robb) in having his popularity crash before his Governorship is done.  As for the others:

      TN-If memory serves, Harold Ford Jr. is an African American congressman.  Allow me to point to Harvey Gantt as an example of what happens when an African American politician who is not Douglas Wilder runs a Statewide race in the South.  I'd like to see it different, but I expect this seat will stay R due to the usual Southern, Republican race-baiting (if something has always worked in the past it is highly likely that it will continue to strongly work in the future sadly).  Though if Ford manages to pull it off very few would be celebrating more than I would.

      MS-I can certainly see someone with the name Michael Moore doing well in one of the five most conservative states in the Union (Alabama, Georgia, S. Carolina being ahead of it, and Utah possibly also being on that list somewhere) :).  This state likely won't go D for a stateside race until after I'm dead (and I'm not even close to 30 yet).  Plus I hadn't heard that Lott was thinking of retiring, though I wouldn't disbelieve it either.

      RI - You'd need a darn good candidate to overcome Chafee's traditional name recognition.  It would be like defeating John Dingell for his Michigan congressional seat, it would take a perfect storm of a phenomenal candidate and a tremendous anti-incumbent mood to the country.

      MO - I'll see about that.  We supposedly don't stand a chance at beating Bond and he is supposedly the "vulnerable" Missouri Senator.  And, if anything, the hatred that Holden seems to be generating as governor (at least to this outsider) is going to be hurting the Dems. in the future far more than a Blout governorship will be hurting the Repubs.

      TX - Another state like MS, the Republicans have such a dominance that they should be able to control the state for years to come.  Do any of the State Dems. have a high enough profile to overcome the "Democrat in the South" problem?  I'm just curious as, outside of Martin Frost, I don't know much about the Texas Dems. (well, there's Jim Hightower, but he isn't exactly going to be running or holding any offices any time soon).

      "All Politics is Local" - former Speaker of the House Tip O'Neil

      by Mister Gloom on Sun Feb 29, 2004 at 06:24:51 PM PST

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