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View Diary: The 4 biggest oil fields in the world are in decline (197 comments)

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  •  Yes, quite (none)
    When discussing the Power Laws, you're discussing chaos, noise, the always ephemeral 3% "error" in lab
    experiments.  Youre looking for the pattern in stochastics/randomness.  It can be tough to describe.

    Simply put.  Imagine a Vortex (tornado).  Now at the top
    of the Vortex you have the Problem.  For every Problem
    there is a Solution.

    The Solution is found at the base of the Vortex, the Finger of God, if you will.

    The point of the "finger" indicates that at this time certain
    the Problem will be solved, regardless of any other conditions.

    A "peaceful, liesurely" solution entails riding around and floating down the outside of the Vortex.

    A violent Solution means trying to stay at the top of the
    Vortex for as long as possible, where you're guarranteed
    to be sucked into the maelstrom and slammed into the
    Solution.

    This entire process is basically Chaos Theory-the Power Laws, described by Zipf, Pareto, Mandelbrot.

    Flip the x and y axes on any logarithmic graph, say
    oil production/consumption and you'll see the Power Laws in operation.  

    eg, flip a Gaussian Bell and watch for Decreasing noise
    levels (ex a VIX volatility chart, less and less participation by anyone who have a vested interest [the Problem] in the outcome).

    The System (Vortex) relaxes toward Equilibrium-Bifurcation (Float/Slamdown) to the new Steady State (Solution).

    James Lovelock says we've overshot and the Slamdown is in humanity's near future.

    CNN/WSJ/WaPo say we're staying at the the top of the Vortex forever.

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