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View Diary: Polls, polls, polls (166 comments)

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  •  New Jersey Sen race is giving me heartburn (4.00)
    We should not underestimate Kean.
    •  A little help for a left-coaster. (none)
      Can anyone offer some insight into that big swing?

      Do you take me for a fool/Do you think that I don't see/That ditch out in the valley/That they're digging just for me -D. Fagan

      by DrewDown on Thu Jan 26, 2006 at 09:36:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The funny thing (none)
        is that the first poll is from before Menendez was officially appointed to Corzine's seat. (Appointment was done on 12/9/05.)  So I guess now that he's officially the incumbent, Menendez is less popular.  I'll admit it's weird.

        He hasn't really done anything yet since Congress hasn't been in session much, so I can't think of any other reason his numbers would dip so much.

        I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than those attending too small a degree of it. -- Thomas Jefferson [-4.25, -5.33]

        by GTPinNJ on Thu Jan 26, 2006 at 09:42:00 AM PST

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      •  not a swing (4.00)

        all or most mythical match-up polls between the two have been like this.

        the reason is that tom kean, jr. is the son of a very popular ex-governor (you might remember him from the 9/11 commission).  people think of him as gentlemanly (correct) and someone who ran the state well (some aspects of this are hugely debateable).

        kean, jr. is a nothing politician on his own, and seems to be quite a bit to the right than his father.  he's really nothing without the name, and a lot of new jersey voters might even think that they're asking a poll question about his +father+ (who is not running, and cannot).

        menendez has problems of his own.  his name recognition is good, but it has a downside, as he's linked to the old-time party machine in the northeast part of the state.

        ironically, when menendez started his political career, he was a reformer and worked against corruption.

        there's cause for concern, but no reason to panic.

        cheers --

        •  Kean like Bush (none)
          "kean, jr. is a nothing politician on his own, and seems to be quite a bit to the right than his father..."

          It seems the tactic should be to show Kean sr. picture right next to George H.W and then Kean jr. picture right next to George W. emphasizing that just like George W. is a far right version of his father, Kean jr. would act in the Senate like a far right version of his and Kean jr.'s values would not be representative of N.J.
          ----------------------------------------------

          "If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about the answers." - Pynchon

          by HairOnFire on Thu Jan 26, 2006 at 09:59:15 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Or overestimate him (4.00)
      I think a lot of this success comes with hype. Oh, he's the big bad Kean. He's the son of a governor who was beloved 20 years ago. Don't mess with him. And so on.

      He lost when he ran for Congress in 2000. He doesn't seem to be anything dynamic in the state legislature. He is just coasting on his last name. Casey might be able to get away with that because Santorum is so odious (although if the PA polls continue to go with Swann, Swann might drag Santorum over the finish line), but Kean has to face a fairly tough opponent.

      I also think that when he has to start pandering to the far right fringe, the way Pete Coors had to in CO a few years ago, the voters will see his true colors.

      •  wow what a thought (none)
        swann taking santorum with him to a win

        i dont think thats so far fetched....esp when women realize how close we really are to losing our rights.

        i pray they wake up before the election and give the dems a good spanking.

        I wish I had a penis on the back of my head.

        by anna in philly on Thu Jan 26, 2006 at 10:22:08 AM PST

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    •  Agree Kean will be tough (none)
      He held a press conference yesterday in Alito's home town. He's a moderate to liberal R, with good name recognition. Kean is good on the environment and is perceived as an honest and ethical good government type. The latter is a problem for Menendez, who has corrupt NJ machine connections & history.

      Menendez has not taken a position on Alito (nor has Lautenberg).

      I realize the homeboy dynamic, but anyone know what's up with NJ Senators on Alito?

      I left a message with Menedez's Office suggesting that oppostion to Alito could be a good contrast issue, and make Kean look partisan because Alito is far more conservative. I called Lautenberg's office and told them that his introduction of Alito was almost as low as Bob Torriccelli's introduction and support of Christie Whitman for confirmaton as EPA Administrator.

      I hope all those "Christie is a moderate" supporters out there are ashamed of themselves now that Whitman's mask has come off in her intro and support of Alito.

    •  Cause for concern (none)
      I'm usually the first one to say - hey don't worry - when these kinds of polls come out in NJ.  But I'm worried about this one too.

      It is all about name recognition for Kean, I agree.  But that's not our only problem.  Not only will we have to compete against the son of a popular former governor, but there is likely to be a tough primary for that Senate seat too.

      When Corzine was choosing someone to take his seat, there were several contenders and it took (IMO) too long for him to decide, and the pot was stirred up.  Loyalties were divided, etc.

      One of those contenders was Rob Andrews, and the last I heard, he still wants the seat and will run against Menendez in the primary.  I sincerely hope he changes his mind, and personally I will not vote for Andrews in the primary either (even though he's my Rep.)  Menendez has an excellent voting record in the House, but he's tainted by some corruption that I don't know all the details about.  

      So while the Republicans have rallied around Kean, we may not even know who our runner is until the last minute.

      The one bright spot of hope in this - while we in NJ tend to go back and forth between dem and repub governors, we have not elected a Republican Senator since 1972.  We really need to keep that seat.

      "Let him that would move the world first move himself." --Socrates

      by joanneleon on Thu Jan 26, 2006 at 10:56:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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