#### Comment Preferences

• ##### One mathematical error you need to correct(4.00)
There is one point you need to correct:

If at any time you have a 8% chance of seeing offensive message, going there 20 times does not give you a 100% chance of seeing one, but only a 80% chance (and 10 times only a 55% chance)

You need to look at it the other way: each time, you have a 92% chance of not seeing anything offensive. If you go twice, you have a 0.92x0.92 = 85% chance of not seeing anything offensive. If you go 5 times, you have a 0.92x0.92x0.92x0.92x0.92 = 66% chance of still not seeing anything offensive.

And so on. If you go 10 times, you still have 0.66x0.66 = 44% chance of not seeing anything, and 20 times 0.44x0.44 = 19%.

This may seem like nitpicking, but as you have tried to be exhaustive, you should correct this little piece of your reasoning.

In the long run, we're all dead (Keynes)
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[ Parent ]

• ##### Many thanks(4.00)
Obviously, you're right. No, it's not nitpicking. It's just basic statistics that I should have gotten right the first time.

I did sort of remember the concept you described. That's why I hedged by saying "approaching," which was easier than trying to remember (or research) the details of what I studied in statistics class a long time ago. But I'm very glad to have your help making my presentation more accurate.

Sorry it took this long to notice your helpful comment. I think I went to sleep right around the time you posted. (The price of being exhaustive is being exhausted.)

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