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View Diary: Open letter to WaPo's Brady: why are 420 posts still hidden? (122 comments)

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  •  One mathematical error you need to correct (4.00)
    There is one point you need to correct:

    If at any time you have a 8% chance of seeing offensive message, going there 20 times does not give you a 100% chance of seeing one, but only a 80% chance (and 10 times only a 55% chance)

    You need to look at it the other way: each time, you have a 92% chance of not seeing anything offensive. If you go twice, you have a 0.92x0.92 = 85% chance of not seeing anything offensive. If you go 5 times, you have a 0.92x0.92x0.92x0.92x0.92 = 66% chance of still not seeing anything offensive.

    And so on. If you go 10 times, you still have 0.66x0.66 = 44% chance of not seeing anything, and 20 times 0.44x0.44 = 19%.

    This may seem like nitpicking, but as you have tried to be exhaustive, you should correct this little piece of your reasoning.

    In the long run, we're all dead (Keynes)
    Read more on the European Tribune - bringing dKos to Europe

    by Jerome a Paris on Sat Jan 28, 2006 at 01:29:40 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Many thanks (4.00)
      Obviously, you're right. No, it's not nitpicking. It's just basic statistics that I should have gotten right the first time.

      I did sort of remember the concept you described. That's why I hedged by saying "approaching," which was easier than trying to remember (or research) the details of what I studied in statistics class a long time ago. But I'm very glad to have your help making my presentation more accurate.

      I've made a change.

      Sorry it took this long to notice your helpful comment. I think I went to sleep right around the time you posted. (The price of being exhaustive is being exhausted.)

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