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View Diary: Tipping point near on global warming!!!! (145 comments)

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  •  "Demand Destruction" (4.00)
    The economic cost of Peak oil is 'Demand Destruction'  -- Global Warming will provide it.

    Much of Africa and the crowded regions of South and Central Asia will DIE.  As lack of petrolium resources in the 2010s reduces available fertilizers, the 'Green Revolution' will be rolled back. Global Warming will greatly change currently arable land:  If super hot summers are what we can expect in Nebraska and Iowa, Corn and wheat won't grow there like it does now.  Rice paddies may dry up from rainfall changes, or become salt-water infested from rising sea levels.  

    A massive die-off is almost inevitable.  Right now, the #1 cause of Starvation is inability to transport food to where the people are hungry.  Peak Oil will greatly increase that problem.  If 67-83% of the world's cut current population population (a reduction from our current 6.6 Billion to between 1 and 2 Billion), it would would greatly resolve the energy problem.  The ECONOMIC and PSYCHOLOGICAL devastation that would follow from such a die off is almost incalculable.  Several Indian tribes in the 1890s, losing thosands of menbers to war and disease, saw the last few tens of survivors die from apparently nothing, literally losing the will to live after their livelihoods, culture, and families all died.  Similar things are coming for the least-well prepared parts of the world.  Relatively wealthy countries in the developed world will use their militaries to try to control the overwhelming flood of refugees.  They will still be profoundly changed.  The US, still blessed at the moment with abundant coal resources, could see one of the smallest changes, though its midwest breadbasket will be slowly desertifying, leading to difficult food production problems even within the US. (Desertification is happening in the US: Nebraska, Texas and Oklahoma are in decade-long droughts, and the water resources are slowly disappearing, but its not as rapid or as thorough as Central Asia or the Horn of Africa) The Mexican Border might well be overwhelmed with Refugees.  Even in the US you might see a sharp population decline.

    Europe is going to be best off from this (as they are better prepared and have a declining population already, along with a number of river valleys and areas with a 2000 year history of local self sufficiency.

    Oil Shortages will add to these problems, eventually resulting in FOOD shortages.  It takes 6 barrels of oil per cow from Birth in the British Midlands to market in London(!), nevermind cattle from Texas to your table.   the Food on your table travels an average of 2500 miles to get there.  there is a metric F#CKTON of oil in the fertilizer, transport, and preparation of food in the US, an estimate of something like 10 Calories of petrolium products per Calorie of food.  And if you think Organic Food isolates you from this, you're dead wrong.  Organic may use less, but its still around 8 or 9 Calories of oil per Calorie of food, because the fertilizer is all you cut out -- they still use tractors, package the food, and transport it long distances.

    This situation is quite probable if the moderate warming trends continue -- and its clearly accellerating: In 2001, most scientists preicted an ice-free Kilamanjaro in central Africa between 2015 ad 2020, a frighteningly rapid death of the Glacier.  It was ice free in 2004!  The Permafrost in Alaska has retreated over 100 miles in the last 5 years, releasing more carbon than New York and Los Angeles put together.

    It is TOO LATE to prevent warming.  2005 was the warmest year in recorded history, surpassing 1998, the previous warmest year.  1998 was a particularly strong el Nino year. 2005 had NO El Nino to speak of. The Final HURRICANE of 2005 was still churning on December 31st! 2006 is shaping up to be just as warm, as people are already commenting on the lack of much 'winter' weather everywhere.  Here in NC, the local Weatherman announced last week that 'Winter just seems to have been cancelled.' -- we've had temps more like October running all winter long. Just last week there was already a Tropical Disturbance in the Carribean.  It didn't amount to anything,  but its much too early for such things.

    Myself, I'm pretty depressed on this.  We've known the trouble with oil was coming since the 1970s, and with global warming since the early 1980s.  We've done almost nothing about either one.  The only thing we did do right was fixing the Ozone layer -- Ozone has been steadily improving since 1999, and is expected to be fully restored between 2020 and 2050, which is good, but not enough on its own.

    We have no desire to offend you -- unless you are a twit!

    by ScrewySquirrel on Sat Jan 28, 2006 at 11:53:23 PM PST

    •  a metric F#CKTON (none)
      Funny as Hell.  I'm using this from now on.

      It'll have alot more impact than -we must reduce by 7 Giga Tonnes per annum the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere or we get CO2 runaway.  We are putting 8 metric FUCKTONS in the air now.


      •  no chance (none)
        400 billion metric tonnes of methane are entering the atmosphere right now from the melt off of the perma frost.  we canot reduce the carbon burden. very soon - less than 5 years over 10,000 billion metric tonnes of methane will enter the atmosphere from the loss of the artic ice cover over the shelf off of siberia where most of it is deposited.  way tooo late.
        nothing humanity can do will stop these releases.

        it is our cares which organize the human mind....

        by wildwisefree on Sun Jan 29, 2006 at 08:36:56 AM PST

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