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View Diary: Revote in Ohio -- More Votes Than Voters Recorded on Diebold machines (199 comments)

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  •  it's much more fun (4.00)
    to talk about personalities, i.e. who's gonna run etc. etc. etc.

    It's much more fun to have "those" conversations and fights about whose candidate is better, etc. etc. etc.

    It's a lot less fun, and really kind of harshes eveyrone's mellow, to discuss the issue of whether or not our elections even matter anymore.

    "Nordic, one of the most obnoxious people at Daily Kos." -- DHinMI

    by Nordic on Mon Feb 06, 2006 at 11:28:30 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  People can't face it yet. " Still I look to (4.00)
      find a reason to believe". People aren't ready to stop believing in the system it's just to frightening. If they believe the elections don't matter they would hav to extrapolate that out to all of it's ramifications

      To sin by silence when they should protest makes cowards of men~~ Abraham Lincoln

      by Tanya on Mon Feb 06, 2006 at 11:39:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  my main comfort (none)
        is that I assume that diebold-type fraud, if it happens, is only undetectable in totals up to one percent or so of the total vote.  If they push it beyond that, the dam would start crumbling.  So it wouldn't be able to stop a landslide, and then if we can get that landslide of dems in, we can pass the legislation to clean it up.  Hopefully.  In the meantime, the rigorous testing/demos that show their flaws are a good thing.

        Beatpaths: automatic graphical sports power rankings.

        by tunesmith on Tue Feb 07, 2006 at 12:10:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think the Ohio ballot proposals were off by a (4.00)
          lot more than that.

          To sin by silence when they should protest makes cowards of men~~ Abraham Lincoln

          by Tanya on Tue Feb 07, 2006 at 12:18:53 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  not true at all, unfortunately (4.00)
          just look at the results in the ohio reform election. all four polled at 2-1 for, all ended up 2-1 against. THIS WAS A VOTE TO REFORM THE CHEATING ELECTIONS!!! how do you fight that? we need an army of hackers to cheat for our side.

          (oh shit, they'll probably send me to gitmo now for sure)

          "i was always dreaming of very powerful people, dictators and things like that." -- arnold schwarzenegger in "pumping iron"

          by hoodoo meat bucket on Tue Feb 07, 2006 at 12:20:43 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Mystery Pollster did a postmortem on that poll (none)
            The Columbus Dispatch poll-by-mail poll.  He decided that, basically, the poll sucked ass.


            •  And this was a pretty convincing study (none)
              •  That does not look so convincing, nor do I think (none)
                that his choice of regression variables is helpful ( --  or that the question at hand is even amenable to regression methods at all).

                For regression analysis to be helpful, then a key independent machine-method variable or set of independent variables would include: "counted by hand or not" (binary 0/1), or opti-scanned or not, or precinct-count vs centrally counted (0/1).  It is not helpful to just break down voting method by every kind of machine type, or by brand.

                The idea that DREs are susceptible to fraud but optiscan counting is not susceptible is wrong, flat wrong.  Another possible factor would be % absentee or % early voting.

                Without a well-thought out set of variables the regression breakout really just picks up "noise," but not real effects.  And throwing in extra variables or machine types just artificially inflates the standard error of beta.  And that way, it doesn't prove a thing.  

                •  well... (none)
                  Look, in the Ohio context we are talking about huge postulated effects -- double-digit fraud across the board. Every reform issue losing in almost every county -- or maybe it was actually a clean sweep, I don't remember. If there is any suspicious systematic difference across counties / methods / manufacturers / whatever, it should not be very easy to lose in noise!

                  And if there isn't a systematic difference, then there must have been massive fraud in just about every county. OK, so is there any evidence other than the mail-in poll?

                  •  and more on the topic of this thread (none)
                    The original post is about the evils and/or errors of Diebold. It claims that in a 2005 levy vote, more votes were cast in one precinct than there were actually registered voters that voted -- but as far as I can tell, that is contradicted by the available evidence. It appears that what actually happened was that some people in one precinct who weren't supposed to be able to vote on the levy, were allowed to vote on it.

                    I dunno, I could be misunderstanding the Montgomery County SOVC report. I'm not sure anyone else has looked at it. It appears that something like 150 levy votes from a precinct in German Twp were thrown out -- but there were many more than 150 people who voted in that precinct.

        •  I've always said this (4.00)
          all Rove needs to do is keep the public as close to 50/50 as possible. 40/60 won't cut it, but 47/53 will. That's not comforting to me considering he's managed to STILL FRAME THE GODDAMN'ED DEBATE: Dems are WEAK on security.

          Now, all we need is another 911 type of attack right around election time and they get their 50%, or something close to it.

          Unless they simply cancel elections because of an attack.

          Who'd put anything past these criminals?

          "I did NOT have sex with that lobbyist!"

          by donailin on Tue Feb 07, 2006 at 05:41:00 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes... (none)
            They can only get away with stealing about 5% of the vote.  More thanthat and it becomes too obvious even for our rigged system.

            So the immediate solution is for Dem candidates to win at least 56% of the vote, not 51% like Kerry was shooting for in 2004.  

            Once we have Dem candidates elected, THEN concentrate on reforming the system and getting rid of hackable voting machines.

          •  What proof do you have? (4.00)
            I don't agree with the contentions that the Republicans can only steal elections if the polls are close to 50-50.  They can do whatever they damn want to do, and they have done it.  The private companies who run the vast majority of not  just the actual voting machines, but the entire voting process, including voter registration on their private propriety non-transparent software have deep ties to the Republican party.

            We have had 3 suspect election cycles in a row, 2000, 2002, and 2004-where the exit polls and the actual voting results were off by mathematically impossible margins-see Professor Stephen Friedman's article and if you want more info.


            •  Here is the link (none)
              This is a great link for information on the stolen 2004 election:


            •  study (none)
              You should know that anyone who uses Friedman's studies to bolster their claims is automatically undermining the legitimacy of their point.

              Beatpaths: automatic graphical sports power rankings.

              by tunesmith on Tue Feb 07, 2006 at 10:03:29 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  huh? (none)
                I don't get it
              •  actually, his name is Freeman (none)
                (I know, you were quoting the previous poster.)

                There's not much wrong with citing Freeman on the point that the 2004 exit polls were off by large margins. Yeah, he goosed the p values, but anyone who takes p values very literally is already in deep, deep trouble; the number of zeroes should be a side issue. (Citing Freeman will not work so well if one tosses in 2000 and 2002. The 2002 U.S. exit polls were basically dead on arrival -- the data system melted down -- but I don't think we know whether they would have been biased if the system had worked. The 2000 exit polls -- at least the presidential ones -- were mostly much more accurate than the 2004 exit polls, despite Florida. The 1992 exit polls had problems.)

                But Freeman jumps the shark IMHO when he depicts  exit polls as normally bias-free and accurate within sampling error. It just ain't so, but a lot of people think it is, and arguably Freeman deserves a lot of the credit for that. I'm not sure.

            •  by the way, (none)
              by asking for proof, you are making an extraordinary claim and then demanding someone else come up the proof to prove your claim wrong.  That doesn't fly.  

              Beatpaths: automatic graphical sports power rankings.

              by tunesmith on Tue Feb 07, 2006 at 02:53:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Yikes! Someone's talking sense! (none)
          DON'T PANIC!

          Look guys, get your story together:

          Was the election stolen by a lone hacker on election day?

          Was it stolen by on preprogrammed DREs at the precinct?

          Was it stolen on the tabulators?

          Was it stolen in Ohio?  And did Kerry lose the popular vote?

          Or was the whole thing stolen?

          Tell me, and I'll show you why I think it wasn't.

          And if it wasn't, then it was probably because it's not that easy.  So there's hope.

          •  It can't be proven either way. (none)
            That, in itself, is unacceptable.

            Now I laugh and make a fortune off the same ones that I torture and a world says, "Kiss me, son of god." ~ They Might Be Giants

            by misscee on Tue Feb 07, 2006 at 10:07:23 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  sure, it's unacceptable (none)
              But I don't think there is any point in overstating the problem if we can put an estimate on its probable size, and I actually think we can.  

              It doesn't mean the system doesn't need fixing, but it means that it stands a chance of limping along well enough that the Dems can still win - and then, with luck, fix it properly.  Especially if you concentrate efforts on eradicating voter suppression which I think very probably cost Kerry a great many more votes than DRE glitches.

              My view is based, among other things, on this analysis which I think puts very powerful constraints on the type and magnitude of fraud in 2004.  Check it out.

              •  I have. (none)
                I also have checked out the GAO report that documents serious flaws. I will continue to think that reliability is an important enough issue to raise red flags and that understating the problem is far worse than overstating it. The original GAO document is a pdf file, but I copied my red flags below.

                Actual Examples of Voting System Failure

                    GAO found multiple examples of actual operational failures in real elections. These examples include the following incidents:

                    * In California, a county presented voters with an incorrect electronic ballot, meaning they could not vote in certain races (p. 29).

                    * In Pennsylvania, a county made a ballot error on an electronic voting system that resulted in the county's undervote percentage reaching 80% in some precincts (p. 29-30).

                    * In North Carolina, electronic voting machines continued to accept votes after their memories were full, causing over 4,000 votes to be lost (p. 31).

                * In Florida, a county reported that touch screens took up to an hour to activate and had to be activated sequentially, resulting in long delays (p. 31).


                Now I laugh and make a fortune off the same ones that I torture and a world says, "Kiss me, son of god." ~ They Might Be Giants

                by misscee on Tue Feb 07, 2006 at 10:58:39 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  curse you, tanya! (none)
        what song is that?!!?!?   aaaaarrrrrggggggggghhhhhhhhhh!

        for some reason, my brain keeps coming back to rod stewart.  damn you, tanya!  damn you!!!

        : p

        weather forecast

        The palaces of kings are built upon the ruins of the bowers of paradise. - Paine

        by Cedwyn on Tue Feb 07, 2006 at 08:20:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  "Reason to Believe" (none)
          Jesse Colin Young did it best and I think, first, but Rod Stewart also did a cover.
           " If I listen long enough to you
             I'd find a way to believe that it's all true
             That you lied straight faced as I cried
             Still I look to find a reason to believe you"

          I try to take one day at a time but sometimes several days attack me all at once ~ Steven Wright

          by Dvalkure on Tue Feb 07, 2006 at 09:37:10 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Such a good point (4.00)
        A lot of "older people" (my parents/relatives) who are normally receptive to the wrongdoings of what is being done in the name of America by Bush, they will not ever even remotely consider the elections are a fraud or are rigged.  Especially considering people's lack of understanding of computers and programming I don't think they realize how really easy it is for Diebold to program the systems to have a certain outcome (or for a rogue employee, or for someone to hack into the system) and to skew the resuslts.

        I also am a believer that 9/11 didn't happen as our government has told us, but with either of these scenarios a lot of people hear the topic sentence, or 1st words out of your mouth, and they shut you out right away because they couldn't live or accept the fact it doesn't matter what they do, they have no control. Also, I think it is their insecurity that the America and country "they know" is not the country we are living in today.  WE LIVE IN A KANGAROO it that hard for people to see what has been in front of them the whole time?

        •  Well I'm not sure what you mena by older (none)
          There are a lot of people on this site that will accuse you of wearing a tinfoil hat just for suggesting the possibility.

          To sin by silence when they should protest makes cowards of men~~ Abraham Lincoln

          by Tanya on Tue Feb 07, 2006 at 12:20:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  yes... (4.00)
      that's precisely what i'm saying.

      this democracy crap is a total downer.

      especially when it's fake.

      that's the hardest kind of democracy afterall... a sham of a democracy.

      damn hard work.

      i just think it's fascinating that we've reached a point in human history where technology has become so apparent to the public as a Pharmakon.

      We simply cannot go hi-tech in my opinion if we're going to trust the system.

      Paper ballots from my view. With Receipts.

      But I do think it's a "Paradigm" for America in particular. I think we'll see it more an more; if we aren't too stupid to miss it.

      Is "hi-tech" hi-tech enough to be worth using yet? Is it moral? Or ethical? For example... (not manimals... I'm all for them!)

      Maybe not.

      •  Even lower-tech still (none)
        Paper ballots with a carbon-copy receipt. No chance of "re-printing" something different than what was marked.

        "Soon the time will come to choose between what is easy, and what is right." - A. Dumbledore

        by epluribus on Tue Feb 07, 2006 at 12:24:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  So true (none)
      And diaries like yours far too many times are ignored by exactly those who say they care about this topic. This is why these thugs don't care about what we think, or what we do regarding "hearings", etc. They have the ace in the hole. From where I sit, if this continues as is, we won't have an election in 2008 ( and I honestly believe they could justify it in their minds and get away with it), so all of that speculating and bickering will be for nought... Time wasted that could have been put to much better use, like saving this Republic from Fascism. But as you stated, that isn't as much "fun" as posting polls and shooting the breeze.

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