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View Diary: Battle Plan for Iran: The Khuzestan Gambit (90% of Iran's Oil) (246 comments)

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  •  Ever heard of Waterborne IEDs? (4.00)
    Tankers would make a big oil slick, and would be prime targets. Oil prices would increase dramatically because the cost of insurance for the tankers would become prohibitive.

    Be ashamed to die until you have won some victory for humanity. Horace Mann

    by Kayakbiker on Thu Feb 23, 2006 at 06:36:57 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Exact-a-mundo (none)
      We try to grab one province and declare "game over" and Iran says "bring on the 2nd quarter"

      I betcha the Iranians have been planning for exactly this scenario.

      •  Supplied by (4.00)
        Russia and China, which may partly explain why we are trying to re-militarize Japan.
      •  All of their planning will be destroyed (none)
        in 3 weeks of 2000 sorties of air strikes and then Special Forces takeover.

        We may lose a couple of tankers every now and then but we lose a couple to storms every now then anyhow.

        Cost of stealing business.  Negligible.

        •  3 weeks of 2000 sorties? (none)
          Okay, give me links that large numbers of F-15s are on their way to the Gulf, along with a few extra aircraft carriers and we can talk.
          •  Sorry Bill, we have plenty of planes already there (none)
            even B-52s that can strike from the US with refueling.

            Believe me, we can mount 2000 sorties easily in 3 weeks and you must agree there would be little left after that.

            We've been building bases surrounding Iran for years.

            You did know that?  Plus the USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Force just entered the Gulf and is there.

            They would move in some extra forces from our bases already in the Gulf.  Plus Diego Garcia and Germany are within flight range.

            •  Desert Storm saw six US carriers (none)
              participate. Six!

              It appears that today we have one in the Gulf. One! Okay it is the Ronald Reagan (heh!) but still that will not permit the massive crushing attack we accomplished as part of Desert Storm.

              •  Bill, how long does it take to get to the Gulf? (none)
                From the Mediterranean?  How long from the States?  Plus as I said, we could pound anything into the ground with B-52s and not have any carriers there!

                Plus we are only taking little old Khuzestan, remember, and bombing the nuke sites.

                We don't need 6 carriers to take a place that's only 100 miles wide and 150 miles long and has more oil than all of Iraq!  We only need the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Force.

                You do realize what a US carrier strike force contains and what it can do, don't you?  It can easily help the Arab rebels and Special Forces take Khuzestan and then more carrier groups are brought in to help patrol the coast.

                No Problemo!

                •  First we need to neutralize (none)
                  the Iranian air force. And their large stash of conventional missiles. And for that we need total air superiority. One carrier isn't enough to launch an offensive air war against Iran and guard the tankers and bust the missile sites.

                  = = =

                  Four weeks without oil and its a global depression. Especially since Iran's missiles can hit Saudi terminals.

                •  One carrier cannot give air cover (none)
                  to our minesweepers.

                  But, tell me 75% of our operational minesweepers are rapidly steaming towards Hormuz and that's a factoid in your favor. Without the sweepers the oil cannot flow and without air cover AND several few thousand troops deployed around Hormuz we cannot secure our minesweepers.

                  We are the greatest military power in human history but we do not have super-hero powers.

                  •  All the Iranians would have to do is... (4.00)
                    dump a few mines and a bunch of empty beer kegs (oops -- goatsmilk kegs?) into the Strait of Hormuz, and our naval operations would be brought to a standstill. Our countermine capabilities are not good, and Navy ships are too expensive to risk losing to a mine.

                    "I'm having trouble with my boy." -- George H. W. Bush, 2004

                    by Shiborg on Thu Feb 23, 2006 at 08:03:57 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  Sounds like a cakewalk! Will we be greeted as (4.00)
                  liberators? Cool, that! And then the Iranian oil will pay for the whole undertaking? Schweet!

                  Wetmachine for your daily dose of technoparanoia.

                  by j sundman on Thu Feb 23, 2006 at 07:44:22 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  I was on the Midway in the Gulf War (none)
              we did 4000 sorties between 01 Nov and 01 Mar.  That is 800 sorties a month.  Granted, Midway was a small carrier with only two catapults.  Still, 2000 sorties in three weeks would be tough.

              Maynard G Muskievote

              by calipygian on Thu Feb 23, 2006 at 07:12:19 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Dems was the old days (none)
                Look how many sorties were flown before the first Gulf War.  A small Jet Sortie is a lot less time than a prop plane sortie, don't forget.

                Jets go faster.

                •  Sorry thought you meant WWII (none)
                  Still you make my point I think.

                  If you think about it, though 200 sorties would just make the rubble bounce in little old Khuzestan.

                  I'll reduce it to 1000 sorties and we still romp.

                  Later we bleed to death, I agree--but the point is we take the gas and it goes to $200 a barrel and the Iranian Bourse has to close.

              •  CVA 41? (none)
                I was on the USS Midway during the Vietnam war. I hear it's in mouthballs now.

                I wasted a lot of time on that ship where I witnessed race riots and all the problems one would expect to find in a city of about 4000 men (no women in old Navy).

                Most of us counted the days, looking forward to becoming a two-digit midget (99 days left to serve in our contracts).

                Be ashamed to die until you have won some victory for humanity. Horace Mann

                by Kayakbiker on Thu Feb 23, 2006 at 07:39:04 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  When I was on board in the early 90's (none)
                  it was CV-41.  And the guys on board were extraordinarily well behaved.  I dont think there were any arrests of  guys on liberty the entire time I was on board (Aug 90 - Mar 91) if you can believe that.  Only three guys died during the deployment, which is pretty good.  They died over Christmas 1990 in Abu Dhabi during a port call in which they took a desert safari and died when their dune buggy flipped over.  No women on board when I was on board.  In fact, as late as 1995, when I was on board the USS Wasp, the only woman on board was a young Lieutenant in the Intel shop.  When I was on board the Midway, I was in Frame 15, one deck below the flight deck.  The channel for the catapult ran right through my spaces and whenever a plane catted off the deck, it would throw my equipment off.  Every hour or so, I would have to quit what I was doing and recalibrate my gear.  During the Gulf War, I had a really scarey experience on board.  We were cruising around the Gulf north of Bahrain.  Iraq shot a Scud toward Bahrain and it fell short, right in the middle of the Midway battle group.  The guys on the Leyte Gulf, who was our plane guard at the time, called over on our circuit.  I couldn't  understand what they were saying because they were in full MOPP gear after the Scud had impacted and their chem alarms were going off.  That Scud had impacted between them and us, and since they were our plane guard, it meant that the Scud had impacted between them and us, less than a mile from the carrier.  Whatever had come from the impact had drifted over the Leyte Gulf and set off their chem alarms.  Another time, a couple of Iraqi planes took off and  made it over the Gulf.  We were the northern most carrier battle group and they were headed for us.  We went to General Quarters, but, I was too tired so I dragged my ass up to my space and found a nice warm spot under my gear and went to sleep.  A Saudi F-15 pilot shot down two of our potential attackers and chased off the third guy.  Ah, Midway, I am so glad I'm off you, but I miss you none the less...

                  Maynard G Muskievote

                  by calipygian on Thu Feb 23, 2006 at 07:59:56 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  We can't defeat a nation of 80 million..., (none)
              through air strikes alone. This whole idea is nightmarish and would be a colossal blunder, just the sort of thing Bush would do.

              "Just think, next time I shoot someone I could be arrested." Lt Frank Drebin

              by irate on Thu Feb 23, 2006 at 08:18:39 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  mobile targets (none)
              We had a hell of time knocking out Iraqi mobile scud launchers.  We couldn't find them to stop them firing.

              In Serbia, we had a hell of time hitting mobile targets.

              Sure the USAF can knock out fixed, identified targets but it is a different story when trying to knock out mobile launchers.  If some of those mobile launchers have a anti-ship capability, we could have some real problems in terms of suppling the army in Iraq as well as getting oil out.

              Another point, does Iran have a self destruct policy in place for oil wells as Iraq had in the first Gulf War?  It took a long time to get those wells back into operation.  

      •  There was a dry run (4.00)
        according to Robert Fisk's new book, during the Iraq-Iran War. At a later stage, they both tried to destroy each other's shipping business, and the US jumped into the frey on the Iraq side, doing such things as registering Kuwaiti tankers under the US flag. The Iranians for their part, tried to avoid direct confrontation with the US, but did develop a lot of no- to low-tech means to hurt ships dealing with Iraq. Now, with tens of thousands of suicide-bomber volunteers it would not take a lot to physically close the Straits.

        Fisk describes how the Iranians had set up missiles to pound the Straits if they decided to, as well as hit Kuwait, et. al., and how they so thoroughly mined some parts of the gulf, US Warship Admirals simply refused to sail into some parts. They have better missiles now, including some of the newer Russian ones.

        And remember the fixed war game before the Attack on Iraq?

        War game was fixed to ensure American victory, claims general

        Wednesday August 21, 2002 The Guardian

        The biggest war game in US military history, staged this month at a cost of £165m with 13,000 troops, was rigged to ensure that the Americans beat their "Middle Eastern" adversaries, according to one of the main participants.

        General Paul Van Riper, ...told the Army Times that the .... exercises, were "almost entirely scripted to ensure a [US] win".

        When Gen Van Riper agreed to command the forces of an unnamed Middle Eastern state - which bore a strong re semblance to Iraq, but could have been Iran - he thought he would be given a free rein to probe US weaknesses. But when the game began, he was told to deploy his forces to make life easier for US forces.

        The Army Times reported that, as commander of a low-tech, third-world army, Gen Van Riper appeared to have repeatedly outwitted US forces.

        ...When the US fleet sailed into the Gulf, he instructed his small boats and planes to move around in apparently aimless circles before launching a surprise attack which sank a substantial part of the US navy. The war game had to be stopped and the American ships "refloated" so that the US forces stood a chance.

        There's little doubt Rumsfeld, Cheney, and Rice are totally convinced their genius will guide us to more successes.

    •  Iran has state of the art cruise missles (none)
      never mind air to ground or ground to ground...

      remember the Falklands?  

      These PNAC guys REALLY should have taken some military history courses.... they are WAAAAY to focused on "politics".......

      Seriously, a fist trumps intellectual arguments.

      And if Rove, Bush or Cheney ever had to deal directly with consequences in their lives, things would be very different

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