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View Diary: Battle Plan for Iran: The Khuzestan Gambit (90% of Iran's Oil) (246 comments)

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  •  Don't misjudge the power of propaganda (none)
    I still doubt there will be ground operations against Iran, but you are making the assumption that Bush is just going to send a contigent of troops in tomorrow.  Doubtful...if there will be a war, there will first be a steady playing of the war drums, which has only just begun.  They will not just invade Iran without first making up a reason.  Almost certainly, the pretext would be to destroy the Bushehr reactor right along the coast to "prevent the Iranians from enriching uranium".  The administration is trying to align as much of the world as possible against Iran and as much as the Chinese and Russians are trying to keep the situation from escalating, Ahmadenijad is not helping by refusing all Russian offers and calling for things like the destruction of Isreael.  Also, we can add additional claims like Iran is interfering in the Basra area and funding Shiite death squads, as well as claiming interference in Afghanistan and possibly the Balochi areas of Pakistan, though the insurgency there is more likely supported by the US.
    •  You're expecting the foe to do the same thing (none)
      it did with the war on Iraq: a long, steady drumbeat that finally crescendos in shock and awe.  If Sherlock Google's frightening scenario does indeed come to pass, I'm not so sure the ramp-up will follow the same pattern.  Rove adapts, like a cockroach.  He knew he couldn't steal the 2004 elections by another razor-thin margin; that'd look suspicious.  Naw, he'd have to make it look like there were a couple of percentage points between Chimp and Kerry, and so he adapted.  It's easier to get 'em to believe one big lie than a bunch of small ones, a role model of Rove's once said.
      War with Iran is something we could all wake up to one morning - breathless reporters talking about news that's been breaking for the past six hours...
      About how a USAF fighter was engaged by the Iranian Air Force, or was shot down by Iranian air defense artillery...
      Or one of those hair-trigger naval "incidents" in which people play chicken with warships and somebody gets an itchy finger...
      Or, more likely, a "sizeable force" of "Iranian troops" are discovered "well inside sovereign Iraqi territory," and though "no photos are available," the Iraqi government will call for "swift retaliation" and we, as the only coherent military force at their disposal, will be obliged to retaliate on behalf of a "violated" Iraq...
      Or, most likely, a "cross-border raid" by "Iranian commandos" will result in the deaths of some Americans, Brits, or Iraqis.  American forces "in hot pursuit" will enter Iran, triggering their defenses, resulting in more deaths that must be avenged, and in we go.

      We already know the Preznit's a man of ax-shun.  To the wingnuts, an overnight retaliation to a manufactured affront would show strong, decisive leadership - "Dubya don't take no shit! Booo-yah!"  In fact, with dittohead spirits flagging over the neverending disaster this presidency has become, this sort of thing might actually look attractive to the foe's marketing boys as a good ole' rally-roun'-the-flag no-brainer.

      "he should bow to no authority and acknowledge no king" - Lucian

      by Unitary Moonbat on Thu Feb 23, 2006 at 09:28:58 PM PST

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