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View Diary: Battle Plan for Iran: The Khuzestan Gambit (90% of Iran's Oil) (246 comments)

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  •  They don't want a divided Iraq... (none)
    ...but they may get it anyway. The US has gone to great lengths to try to avoid a civil war for several reasons:

    1. The Shia southeastern part of Iraq would become a satellite state of Iran--the last thing the Bushies want.
    2. A Kurdish state in the north would compel the Kurd majority in our so-called secular and democratic ally Turkey to rebel.  The Turks would then face the tough choice of cracking down on the Kurds and losing any chance of EU membership or letting the area become an autonomous or semi-autonomous region.  Either way, it is lose-lose for our relations with Turkey.  
    3. As if oil output isn't bad enough now, a full-scale civil war would put a huge dent in oil output, which is the reason we are there to begin with.
    •  No, they wanted it divided (none)
      1.  The Shia are being given their own state, and they would not turn it over to the Persian rulers in Tehran.  The Shia will break off from both Iraq and Iran, and have themselves a little empire in the north of the persian gulf from which to pump oil and buy escalades.

      2.  Turkey is already on the skids with the US and EU.  After Turkey refused US use of its airspace in invading Iraq, I don't think there is any love lost by the States.  Further, I can't see why the neo-cons would give a rats ass about whether Turkey gets invited to the EU party.  

      3.  Oil output is indeed going to get hammered, I agree with you here.  But in the long run, if Peak Oil is in fact here, the US will be in a much more advantageous postition sitting smug on top of 15% of the world's oil supply.  The US would rather have the oil stuck underground but under our thumb, than flowing freely but under the control of a government hostile to US dominance.

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