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View Diary: The Spanish Bombing and the Real War on Terriorism (31 comments)

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  •  Where's the Margin for ETA (none)
    If it was them, it means they have shifted their stance considerably. That's not impossible, given the success of the Spanish in cracking down on their leadership in the last couple of years.

    But in putting away the old guard they may have radicalised the base and let into the top jobs some much harder people with much less compunction. Imagine consdering the old EETA people as Moderates?

    But it also risks enormous backlash in the way thet the IRA ended up being marginalised because it couldn't accept the openings of the political process.

    ETA could have planted a lead to AQ as a way to cause trouble and avoid blame, but that also doesn't make sense. ETA terror has an objective; Basque independence. That end is only advanced if Spaniards understand that the price they are paying is the cost of refusing that outcome.

    On the other hand, AQ or its surrogates, maybe even the Iraqi resistance, might have bet that a bombing in Madrid on election eve would immediately be blamed on ETA and cover their getaway while the cops were looking in the wrong place. AQ after all has patience, savvy and understands that co-ordinated attacks don't just terrorise, they raise it to the power of the number of attacks while turning the authorities into a bunch of headless chickens.

    And size doesn't matter, this could be a splinter group of 6 people posing as backpackers, creating a credible trail all round Spain to arrive in Madrid on Wednesday and hit the trains on Thursday. And just keep walking.

    "Till the last dog dies"

    by Deep Dark on Thu Mar 11, 2004 at 09:18:24 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

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