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View Diary: The GOP advantages in 2006 (336 comments)

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  •  Math, Gerrymander, and Diebold (3+ / 0-)
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    Sherri in TX, StrayCat, pissedpatriot

    I agree with your observations, and there are still more factors against us.

    Math
    Of the 33 senate seats up this cycle, currently 15 are Republican, 17 Democratic, 1 Independent. To win control of the senate we are going to have to win 23 seats.

    Gerrymandering
    Winning the House should be easy except for all the safe seats. I haven't seen any calculation predicting the national effect of gerrymandering. My out-of-the-hat guess is it will take a 56% national Democratic edge in House elections to win a bare majority of the seats.

    Diebold Effect
    My shorthand for election fraud. I don't think fraud is so wide spread they can fix elections in a landslide.  But in a close election, a little creative vote counting will make the difference.

    The bottom line is, we are going to need a landslide election to squeak through a tiny majority. The good news is, we have a chance to do it.

    Power is not sufficient evidence of truth. - Samuel Johnson

    by Knighterrant on Mon Mar 20, 2006 at 10:46:22 AM PST

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