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  •  I read that Avian is not the big one (0+ / 0-)

    Over the weekend in the NYT there was a story about how H5 is probably NOT the next pandemic flu; that it's been around since the 1950s and has yet to achieve the correct mutations that would make good human to human transmission possible. Any reactions?

    Economic Left/Right: -6.63 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.85 That makes me more Gandhi than Stalin

    by TomDuncombe on Tue Mar 28, 2006 at 06:07:25 AM PST

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    •  sure (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RunawayRose, Carnacki

      folks who said that it's been around for 10 years (it has) in SE Asia were stunned that it's exploded all over the world since Nov 05.

      And those who say it hasn't gone pandemic therefore it won't are assuming reassortment rather than random mutation or recombination as a mechanism of change. it turns out that all are possible, not just reassortment, and that changes the odds.

      See At the U.N.: This Virus Has an Expert 'Quite Scared'

      There are and should be and will always be skeptics. But even the skeptics agree this is a surprising and uniuque virus, that we don't know what happens next, and that prep for an eventual pandemic is a must. Even the skeptics.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Tue Mar 28, 2006 at 06:19:35 AM PST

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