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  •  The Dollar (none / 1)

    BUT, see the ROUNDTABLE in today's Barron's.

    I'm betting on a further fall in the dollar.  Oil continues UP,  commodities are UP.  This has to indicate some kind of inflation, somewhere.  I think the US ends up (is?) competing with China (and a resurgent Asia) for resources.

    And, since when did this Admin give a damn about Euro pain?

    The current choice is paying for all this by printing money,  and hoping the economy reflates.  But, the Roundtable folks are pretty skeptical about last 1/2.  So am I.

    My thought:  current strength in dollar is dead cat bounce.  I need a reason why it can be sustained ...?

    Walter L Battaglia

    by WalterB on Mon Jan 19, 2004 at 11:30:11 AM PDT

    •  I agree, sort of (none / 1)

      The Dollar fundamentals are awful. But the Euro fundamentals aren't so hot and neither are the Yen's. Those economies are underperforming and have a growing population distribution problem (many old people, few young people), so France and Germany are running rather large deficits.

      I think the key here is China, the ME, and other regions, where the Dollar has lost favor for market, political and practical reasons. US equities are no longer valued as they were in the dot-com days, for example. The bursting bubble was painful and the subsequent scandals a lesson.

      But the Europeans have their own scandals (Parmalat, Vivendi) and burst bubbles (British Telecom, France Telecom, and others).

      Ultimately, though, their advantage is that they are not running a chronic negative current account balance. This is what, in the end, will prove the dollar's undoing if it is not corrected.

      Let us rid ourselves of the fiction that low oil prices are somehow good for the United States.

      by M Aurelius on Mon Jan 19, 2004 at 01:34:37 PM PDT

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      •  I had to dig through the diaries... (none / 0)

        To find this again.  Given this administration's propensity to over spend and the Republican Congress's willingness to belly up to the pork-barrel trough in a way that is making Democrats blush, what can we do in order to stop the dollar's slide?  And will we start seriously feeling the affect of this by this summer?  Part of me says yes, while the more cynical side feels that Dubya is going to dodge the bullet until 2005/2006.  Either way, it is going to be a huge mess for someone to clean up.

        O'Neil's book is an insight into what we have been saying in the economic threads on this blog.  Prancer is by no means implementing policy, just doing what is politically expeediant or what he can politically get away with.  The CBS/NYT contains a little cherry about how most Americans do not feel the benifit of the tax cut.  I think they were willing to go along with it, even if it does mean giving the weathly more, as long it means more jobs.  The December job report blew that out of the water.  So I hold out no hope that the dollar will be corrected...

        by RichM on Mon Jan 19, 2004 at 03:17:25 PM PDT

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