Daily Kos

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  •  Re: Well... (none / 0)

    "The Gep is throwing all his resources  and machine and the Mayor of St. Louis to Kerry in MO to Kerry, and Edwards has been endorsed by the Mayor of Kansas City for the other quarter of the state. We've got college kids. Read the diary posts. In St. Louis Kerry is already calling voters to ask them to hear K speak tomorrow night in StL. Check out the diary posts."

    MO is shaping up to be a do or die moment for Edwards, in my mind.

    Visit Petey's Diary

    by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:33:34 PM PDT

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    •  Do-or-die? Doubt it (none / 0)

      MO is shaping up to be a do or die moment for Edwards, in my mind.

      Eh, not really. Edwards can win South Carolina and lose Missouri, and place well in other states and still be in it - unless Kerry wins all the other states. That is doubtful.

      Lieberman is strong in Delaware. Clark is strong in Arizona and Oklahoma. Dean and Clark are strong in New Mexico. Who knows about North Dakota.

      Blogs: Politizine & Nader didn't cost Gore in 2000

      by radiotony on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:43:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Re: Do-or-die? Doubt it (none / 0)

        "Eh, not really. Edwards can win South Carolina and lose Missouri, and place well in other states and still be in it - unless Kerry wins all the other states. That is doubtful."

        depends what you mean by "still be in it"

        if you mean "not have to drop out", then you are correct.

        if you mean "able to win the nomination", then i think you're wrong.

        Kerry is now on a tight inside track to the nomination.  and unless he is forcibly derailed soon, that dynamic will only reinforce itself.

        Edwards is expected to win SC.  it's like NH is to Kerry or Dean.  by winning MO, he'd be able to put the money and Party people on notice that he still has a shot.

        without MO, i strongly fear Edwards would join Dean in the ranks of the undead.

        Visit Petey's Diary

        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:50:34 PM PDT

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        •  Don't agree (none / 0)

          Edwards could also win Oklahoma.  He would be nice to win Missouri, but it's not a do or die situation.  He has to win South Carolina though.

          Shill, Shill, Shill.

          by Paleo on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:20:21 PM PDT

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          •  Re: Don't agree (none / 0)

            "Edwards could also win Oklahoma.  He would be nice to win Missouri, but it's not a do or die situation.  He has to win South Carolina though."

            if Kerry wins 5 or 6 states on Tuesday, i just don't see a path for Edwards to get to the nomination.

            there's a much more of a powerful front-runner effect in this race than many here assume.  if Kerry comes close to sweeping next Tuesday, he'll have won 3 weeks in a row.  the Party is already more comfortable with him than any other candidate.

            if Kerry comes close to sweeping, the ranks will start closing behind Kerry, and the doors will start closing in Edwards' face.

            Edwards needs to really beat expectations on 2/3 to change the dynamic.  a moral victory is a loss at this point.  only an actual victory will do any good.

            Visit Petey's Diary

            by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:35:31 PM PDT

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            •  Yes and no (none / 0)

              I agree about the frontrunner effect.  Kerry could get three wins on Feb. 3:  Missouri, Arizona and Delaware.  If Edwards wins South Carolina and Oklahoma, he will blunt the effect of those victories.  But you're right.  Kerry could follow the Dukakis model and get at least a win every week, and roll on to the nomination.

              Shill, Shill, Shill.

              by Paleo on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:49:30 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  I think you're off ... (none / 0)

          depends what you mean by "still be in it ... if you mean "able to win the nomination", then i think you're wrong."

          Well, you can think that but look I don't think you are being realistic. I don't know if you are a Kerry person or not, but the key to looking at these things are to be realistic.

          If Edwards wins South Carolina, and the other states split between the other candidates, then the nomination it is still up for grabs. Sure, Kerry could win them all - and then you would be right, it will be hard for the others to stay in it - but that isn't going to happen.
          So, he doesn't have the nomination.

          Next comes Michigan and Washington - both caucuses - with Kerry running strong in one, Dean running strong in the latter. Kerry and Dean split the Maine caucus a day later, and then Edwards wins Tennessee and Virgina.
          Nevada is a toss up four days later and Wisconsin becomes a brawl between Dean and Kerry.

          Nomination still up for grabs.

          A week later, Idaho, Hawaii, and Utah, all up for grabs.

          Another week later, Super Tuesday:
          Dean: California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Minnesota.
          Edwards: Georgia
          Kerry: Rhode Island, Maryland, probably New York, maybe Ohio if he gets the Gephardt endorsement.
          Lieberman, if he is still in it, gets Connecticut, otherwise it goes to Kerry.

          Still, no clinch.

          A week later, Edwards sweeps Mississippi, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas.

          A few days later, Edwards wins Kansas.

          A few days later, Kerry wins Illinois.

          Still no clinch.

          A few days later, Kerry wins Wyoming; Dean wins Alaska.

          Colorado on April 13 and Pennsylvania on April 27 become blood-baths and decide the nomination.

          Blogs: Politizine & Nader didn't cost Gore in 2000

          by radiotony on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:22:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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