It is a bit hard to look substantive and Presidential when one is rolling about in the mud.

I personally think that one of the more effective lines of Bush's 2000 campaign was his pledge to bring honor back to the White House (thanks Bill. Monica, Linda, Ken, et al, for giving him that opening).    I think Kerry could play that back in regard to sending boys into battle only when neccessary, giving tax cuts only when economic circumstances warranted, not merely to appease political supporters, etc.

That's not getting down in the mud, that is engaging the American people.   I suspect the mud will have an effect, but the war in Iraq and the general malaise of the current administration will have a far greater effect.   This is not 2000.   Bush can't even make up his mind whether he can "win" the war on terror, which we know is a flawed premise to begin with.   One cannot win a war against a strategy.   That whole idea makes about as much sense as saying that we are going to fight a war against people who go on strike.   All that Bush has done by his approach is to provide a false sense that all who use terror tactics are in league with each other.   In the process, he could well produce that outcome, by giving them a sense of shared external threat.  The last thing the world (or the Palestinians) need is for the world to link their struggle to the international jihadist movement.

I think Kerry has plenty to work with, but more to the point, the Iraq/Middle East situation will so tar the Bush administration as to leave it incapable of retaining the trust of the American people.    I do not view that fact lightly.   Hundreds of American young people will be sacrificed  in pursuit of the fantasy that the Iraqis were ripe for becoming a democracy.