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  •  I don't see how it could happen today (4.00 / 2)

    Too much has to happen before the nuclear option can be triggered.  They're not simply going to walk in the door and say "ok, next item, nuclear option!"

    First, Frist has promised full debate on the nuclear option.  So we're going to have a lot of speeches like the one Boxer is making right now.  Barbara is the best, but we all know the arguments by now, so it's liable to be a tedious process.  But either way, the integrity of the Senate itself is on the line, and lots of people will want to be heard.

    Second, after all that, a nominee has to be proposed.  It's either going to be Rogers-Brown or Owen, I guess.  But if Owen (let's say) is the first item on the agenda, it's not like Harry Reid will announce "we filibuster" and Frist will be like "ok, nuclear option!"  No, there's going to have to be debate on the nomination first.  Frist's offer of 100 hours of debate was rejected, but still, he can't exactly stop things after 30 minutes and say "ok, that's enough debate."  He has to let the Democrats go on for a while at which point he can finally ask the Democrats to indicate whether they intend to filibuster.  If he asks prior to that time, the response will likely be "Let's have some debate first and see where we stand."

    After Frist can plausibly claim there's been enough debate, a cloture motion will be filed.  Assuming cloture fails, that's when you'll see the nuclear option play out, along the lines Kagro X has described in his excellent diaries.

    When will it all happen?  I don't know, but not today, and maybe not even this week.  I don't think it's likely to be the sort of thing where you might blink and miss it.

    •  asdf (none / 0)

      The vote itself won't happen immediately, but he doesn't seem to be starting the procedure.  And Frist asking for a ruling that only a majority is needed for calling for a vote on a nominee isn't much more than 1 statement which could catch people by surprise.

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