No arguments with point 2, but I want to respond to point 1.  SS came up in an off-year.  The Democrats understandably remained mostly silent and wisely let the Republicans hurt themselves on it.  Some Democrats felt the need to embrace the issue, but I doubt that they'll campaign on it.  Republican congressmen with half a brain are staying away from it.

When the Republicans want to overturn a popular or simply good government program, Democrats have to play jui jitsu with it and not come out aggressively.  It certainly served them well with social security.