Just one reading of what's going on, and not a particularly insightful one. He basically looked at what was going and said, "nope, may look good but I don't believe it." He may be right, but has no real justification for his positions, and is in disagreement with a lot of other people. Do we know what Sharon would have done? No, we don't. But his surging popularity, particularly with the left which used to hate him bitterly, is on the basis of his promise to bring peace. So even if he is not being honest, he may still be an unwilling agent in the move towards peace.