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I'm just getting used to the idea of an American renaissance.
Great diary, recc'd.
I sure hope you're wrong!
by kidneystones on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 04:39:17 AM PDT
I put off writing this diary for over a week, waiting to see how things shaped up during the election. While it's a hopeful sign that the Enterprise is heading for home, I'm very nervous about the rhetoric coming out of Israel and the agitations of the neo-cons. I also suspect that the Iraq Survey Group and Robert Gates in particular are pursuing the PNAC plan by partitioning Iraq and blaming Iran for a lack of progress in the region.
We'll have to wait and see. All I can do is read, think and blog about it. I wish it was more.
"Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?" - Abraham Lincoln
by LondonYank on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 04:43:25 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
left Lisbon early Saturday.
It had stayed there for almost a week and all the while (being on the news and treated as an attraction of sorts) I had you on my mind (!), wondering if you were tracking its course or not.
Some suggested we go see it up-close but I refused as I have no time for war machines that cause death to others.
"It takes two to lie. One to lie, one to hear it." Homer Simpson
by Euroliberal on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 04:56:33 AM PDT
Is it really Olmert or is it Bush and Cheney telling Olmert that they want him to tell us to attack Iran.
I think Bush & Cheney want it. I thought they really wanted it before the election.
What would Israel gain from attacking Iran? I don't see it.
The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. Dwight Eisenhower, 1961
by R2 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 05:57:05 AM PDT
OceaniaEastasia.
You've gotta have a them if you want to control us. Besides, they really don't deserve all that oil as much as we do...
This is CLASS WAR, and the other side is winning.
by Mr X on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:17:23 AM PDT
we will never get out of the Middle East.
Unfortunately our leaders (at least in the WH) are willing to trade blood for oil -- because it is profitable for their friends.
We need to get out of oil.
But of course, that would not be profitable for them.
by R2 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:21:53 AM PDT
Hillary the war monger will be leading the charge from the Democratic side of the Bi-partisan War Party. Time to stamp her out along with the suck-up McCain, who wants to put 20,000 MORE TROOPS in Iraq. What for John, so they can be ready to invade Iran?
End the blood lust, stop the oil wars now before Iran is involved.
by MD patriot on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:04:12 AM PDT
Hillary a warmonger, huh? But aren't you more concerned about the fact that she eats babies for breakfast????
Ambition is when you follow your dreams. Insanity is when they follow you.
by Batfish on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:38:26 AM PDT
So why are you so willing to give her a pass on this? Sure she criticized the WAY the war was waged, but basically she supported the invasion of Iraq, therefore she is a certified war monger.
I'm not part of the Hillary bashing brigade, but once she supported Bush's Iraq War, she was finished as a possible Presidential candidate for me, I will actively work against her if she runs.
by MD patriot on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:45:07 AM PDT
right next to her stage was a group of black hat Orthodox Jews. This is the most adament Jewish group supporting the war. Go back and look at a video of the speech if you don't believe me.
The truth about John McCain
by tikkun on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 09:26:06 AM PDT
There are Orthodox Jews who regard the State of Israel as blasphemous (because the restoration of the Jewish people to their homeland is reserved to the Messiah) and support the idea of a one-state solution, a secular Palestine with equal protections for all—Jews, Arabs, Druze....
But the odds are heavily against Hillary having appeared with Neturei Karta.
The Dutch children's chorus Kinderen voor Kinderen (= “kids for kids”): is a world cultural treasure.
by lotlizard on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 09:49:50 AM PDT
then yeah! I didn't know she was a filthy jew-lover! Forget the baby eating, I bet she poisons the wells that Christians drink from!! Stop this fiend now!!!
by Batfish on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 05:01:25 PM PDT
fearing or admirering "the Jews". It had to do with the organized political stance of American haredi Jews.
Your comment, on the other hand, suggests that no one should comment on the organized political activity of Jewish groups which is absolute bs. We had better know how all groups are voting, who is getting their votes, and for what reason.
by tikkun on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 09:14:34 PM PDT
But cheap shots against Hillary sound more like Limbaugh than useful.
Her vote was dictated by political considerations that are not to be easily dismissed here in NY State.
Today, 5/12/08, 4076 Americans, and untold Iraqis are dead, tens of thousands more maimed. Bush lied, how soon before your family pays the price for that?
by boilerman10 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 09:43:37 AM PDT
That is fine, let her stay as US Senator from NY, that is not some minor-league job, she should be well satisfied with that position.
by MD patriot on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:42:45 AM PDT
as long as you are equally sure that you could not support Kerry or Edwards because they are war mongers.
Unseen Gore Video
by TeresaInPa on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:29:23 AM PDT
... with Russ Feingold's announcement, that our patriot friend is torn between Dennis Kucinich, Ralph Nader, and a player to be named later ...
Feingold's non-entry really has a more than a few Kossacks feeling edgy ...
Obesa cantavit
by wystler on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:36:39 AM PDT
Please, the only one more stuck on himself than Traitor Joe is Ralph Nader.
But you are right, I hate to see Russ go, we may have to look to the Governors now, most of the Senators are confirmed war-mongers, its a bi-partisan disease that deeply infects the US Congress in both parties.
Why should we spend $1,500 per person on the War Department? Why even the "axis of evil" Iranians spend about $80 per capita, why are we wasting our money on the greedy Halliburton and Lock-Marts? Oh, wait, I forgot, they OWN congress except for the share that the Big Pharma types own.
by MD patriot on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:41:30 AM PDT
her public position was "send more troops."
Save WBAI - vote independent
by mightymouse on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:59:13 AM PDT
Somebody put her speech on YouTube now!
Use Tor and PGP on the net. (google it)
by fugue on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:49:24 PM PDT
I loved this comment about Sunday's Meet the Press:
Opposition to the Iraq war was the dominant factor in this week’s election. NBC’s Meet the Press invited Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) to discuss the issue. Both McCain and Lieberman expressed support for sending more troops to Iraq. Only 8 percent of Americans support sending more troops to Iraq. The other 92 percent were not represented this week on Meet the Press.
by lizpolaris on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:06:03 AM PDT
GE/NBC loves the war loot, they get paid both ways, once to bomb and destroy, then on the back side in the rebuilding process.
So no surprise that the RWCM encourages war without end, its what they do.
by MD patriot on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:45:33 AM PDT
will mean cheaper oil. So, it's got to be related to the Palestinian issue. Israel wants the Jordan Valley and Iran is pushing for a Palestinian State. A viable one. Not swiss cheese.
Will the elite be happy living behind gated communities in the potential meltdown? Peace now. -7.00, -2.92
by mattes on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:51:02 AM PDT
I don't know why I think that. Maybe I got it from Farenheit 911.
by R2 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:58:40 AM PDT
by mattes on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:07:14 PM PDT
the wrong kind of way, like, Iran was OURS, we're getting it back. This will only make Iraq worse.
The prophet is a fool, the spiritual man is mad; For the multitude of thy iniquity And the great hatred...
by Tirge Caps on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:50:03 AM PDT
... and tell President Eisenhower to leave the democratically elected Iranian PM Mossadegh alone.
by lotlizard on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:00:19 AM PDT
Middle East there would be today had movements like Mossedegh's been accepted and not pissed on.
I really do believe that was the difference.
by Tirge Caps on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:03:25 AM PDT
hadn't attacked Iran in 1980.
by daisycolorado on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 01:02:04 PM PDT
will acknowledge it every time. Our past actions really give us no credibility with their people, or any right to meddle any further. It's all about money...and trying to scare our own people. This is why history and education are so important.
I'm sure most have read "Sleeping with the Devil" and "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man". If not, check them out.
"As you know, these are open forums, you're able to come and listen to what I have to say." - Bush, Washington, D.C., October 28, 2003
by Stay Classy on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 01:05:38 PM PDT
read for anyone also.
by Tirge Caps on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:00:40 PM PDT
You're assuming that warmongers are rational thinkers. They're about as rational as the guy who keeps feeding coins into a slot machine, convinced he's coming out ahead because of all the free booze he's getting ("Ready for another one, Mr. Bennett?").
by fairfax on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:21:14 AM PDT
But I think they were encouraged to do so by BushCO.
by R2 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:22:52 AM PDT
This was something they've wanted to do for quite some time. They certainly were enabled.
by fairfax on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:38:03 AM PDT
by R2 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:55:26 AM PDT
their coveted "buffer zone"? from what I read that seemed to be the goal
"If tyranny and oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy" -- James Madison
by scratchinmybutt on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:25:37 AM PDT
Hizbollah, and without having regained custody of the two soldiers whose abduction was the supposed cause of their disproportionate attack.
So they gained nothing, and suffered a defeat against a much smaller force with nowhere near the resources the IDF possesses.
On the whole, it was probably even more of a disaster than their original invasion of Lebanon 24 years ago, proving yet again the wisdom of George Santayana.
by fairfax on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:33:53 AM PDT
... that Hizzbollah can be destroyed?
by InStride on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:52:52 AM PDT
Yes, there are such people, and they keep making the same mistake over and over.
After all, Hizbollah was born out of Israel's attempt to destroy once and for all the PLO. It's a modern, particularized version of the old belief held by colonial military commanders that the natives could be brought to heel by "a whiff of grape," i.e., "just send in some troops, fire until you have a nice pile of corpses, and the lesser breeds will behave the way we want them to." It's never worked, but people insist on clinging to the delusion.
by fairfax on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:12:35 AM PDT
the need for it. Take care of the people in south Lebanon... schools, healthcare, clean water, etc., and protect them.
by mattes on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:54:30 AM PDT
Is exactly what Hizbollah is doing, taking care of the people in Southern Lebanon, I mean. BTW, it's passed pretty much unnoticed in the US, but there's a political crisis in Lebanon, and for all the wishful talk about how the war would make Hizbollah unpopular, they apparently now feel sufficiently strong to insist on getting more power. This is in today's NY Times:
Lebanon is in the middle of a political crisis that is not just a matter of jockeying for power, but a fundamental realignment of authority here — and perhaps in the region.. . . Long in the making, the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah — which was waged to crush the group’s militia — seems to have accelerated the rise of Lebanon’s Shiites, from their onetime status as the nation’s unwanted stepchild to the cusp of political dominance. As a political party, a militia and social welfare organization, Hezbollah has used the devastation of the war with Israel to help strengthen the allegiance of Shiites, giving out money and services that the government has so far failed to deliver. Though no one knows for sure the size of each group in Lebanon — there has not been a census since the 1930’s — Shiites are believed to make up more than 30 percent of the population, and by some estimates have reached a plurality. But it would require a major leap for the Shiites to realize their political goal of dominance — and their efforts to reach it could threaten long-term instability, and perhaps bring armed conflict. [snip] On Saturday, Hezbollah and its main Shiite ally, Amal, provoked a political crisis when their five ministers resigned from the government after talks broke down about giving Hezbollah’s alliance more authority. A sixth minister aligned with the pro-Syrian president, Èmile Lahoud, quit today. Those resignations have set the stage for a showdown between Hezbollah and its allies, which are aligned with Syria and Iran, and the Sunni, Druse and Christian leaders who control the largest bloc in Parliament and side with the West. [very big snip] One Hezbollah official said the outcome of this fight could jeopardize the delicate system of power-sharing among religious communities that was established in the Taif agreement of 1989, which brought an end to 15 years of civil war. “If they want to govern without Shiite ministers, then nothing would prevent a Shiite from running for president in the future,” said Tarrad Hamadeh, the Hezbollah minister of labor, who resigned Saturday, referring to the agreement that the presidency would be reserved for Christians. “They are messing with the country’s future.” In war-torn neighborhoods of the south, in the Bekaa Valley, and in Dahiya, often the only sign of authority is Hezbollah’s yellow flag. Hezbollah remains the de facto government within its communities. “We can make a revolution in Lebanon, we can occupy Lebanon, but this is not what we want,” said Bilal Naeim, a Hezbollah politburo member who is overseeing the group’s relief effort. “We could make a coup d’état.”
Lebanon is in the middle of a political crisis that is not just a matter of jockeying for power, but a fundamental realignment of authority here — and perhaps in the region.. . . Long in the making, the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah — which was waged to crush the group’s militia — seems to have accelerated the rise of Lebanon’s Shiites, from their onetime status as the nation’s unwanted stepchild to the cusp of political dominance.
As a political party, a militia and social welfare organization, Hezbollah has used the devastation of the war with Israel to help strengthen the allegiance of Shiites, giving out money and services that the government has so far failed to deliver. Though no one knows for sure the size of each group in Lebanon — there has not been a census since the 1930’s — Shiites are believed to make up more than 30 percent of the population, and by some estimates have reached a plurality. But it would require a major leap for the Shiites to realize their political goal of dominance — and their efforts to reach it could threaten long-term instability, and perhaps bring armed conflict.
[snip]
On Saturday, Hezbollah and its main Shiite ally, Amal, provoked a political crisis when their five ministers resigned from the government after talks broke down about giving Hezbollah’s alliance more authority. A sixth minister aligned with the pro-Syrian president, Èmile Lahoud, quit today.
Those resignations have set the stage for a showdown between Hezbollah and its allies, which are aligned with Syria and Iran, and the Sunni, Druse and Christian leaders who control the largest bloc in Parliament and side with the West.
[very big snip]
One Hezbollah official said the outcome of this fight could jeopardize the delicate system of power-sharing among religious communities that was established in the Taif agreement of 1989, which brought an end to 15 years of civil war.
“If they want to govern without Shiite ministers, then nothing would prevent a Shiite from running for president in the future,” said Tarrad Hamadeh, the Hezbollah minister of labor, who resigned Saturday, referring to the agreement that the presidency would be reserved for Christians. “They are messing with the country’s future.”
In war-torn neighborhoods of the south, in the Bekaa Valley, and in Dahiya, often the only sign of authority is Hezbollah’s yellow flag. Hezbollah remains the de facto government within its communities. “We can make a revolution in Lebanon, we can occupy Lebanon, but this is not what we want,” said Bilal Naeim, a Hezbollah politburo member who is overseeing the group’s relief effort. “We could make a coup d’état.”
by fairfax on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:41:42 AM PDT
but it won't be pretty when it happens.
by daisycolorado on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 01:03:12 PM PDT
they'll tell you what they've gained, or at least what they want you to hear ...
meanwhile, what they HAVE gained is a more radicalized Israeli populace ... i trust you'd recognized that tactic here in the US ... our nation's GOP didn't invent it ...
by wystler on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:40:10 AM PDT
so who exactly is pushing this in Israel. It is not in the interest if the US to do this.
From the point of view of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, this finding is potentially positive, in view of the poor showing that he personally made in the survey. Olmert's approval rating this week plummeted to 22 percent, compared to 48 percent six weeks ago.
Think Tank. "A place where people are paid to think by the makers of tanks" Naomi Klein.
by ohcanada on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:41:31 AM PDT
by mattes on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 01:03:30 PM PDT
A meeting in handcuffs for Ehud Olmert, George Bush . . . In an interview to Newsweek before leaving for the U.S., Olmert hinted at a possible Israeli military operation. Israel's "low profile" policy in the face of the Iranian threat evaporated over the past several weeks as the world's impotence in dealing with Iran became more obvious. The remarks by Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh to the Jerusalem Post exposed Israel's dilemma. Sneh explained that an Iranian nuclear bomb could destroy the Zionist enterprise even if the bomb was never used, since its very existence would lead Jews to emigrate from Israel. Such statements will certainly put additional pressure on the government. That will be Olmert's primary message to Bush. Will a veiled threat be sufficient to rouse the U.S. into saving Israel and attacking Iran? Will Olmert's promises to withdraw from the territories in exchange persuade the administration?
A meeting in handcuffs for Ehud Olmert, George Bush
. . . In an interview to Newsweek before leaving for the U.S., Olmert hinted at a possible Israeli military operation.
Israel's "low profile" policy in the face of the Iranian threat evaporated over the past several weeks as the world's impotence in dealing with Iran became more obvious. The remarks by Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh to the Jerusalem Post exposed Israel's dilemma. Sneh explained that an Iranian nuclear bomb could destroy the Zionist enterprise even if the bomb was never used, since its very existence would lead Jews to emigrate from Israel. Such statements will certainly put additional pressure on the government.
That will be Olmert's primary message to Bush. Will a veiled threat be sufficient to rouse the U.S. into saving Israel and attacking Iran? Will Olmert's promises to withdraw from the territories in exchange persuade the administration?
http://haaretz.com/...
by lotlizard on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:41:33 AM PDT
and agree that it is chilling that they see Iran existing as a regional power to be the real threat, as it would discourage further settlement to Israel.
Dark Clouds of Fear: Iran and Israel
by LondonYank on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:48:25 AM PDT
because of the emigration it would cause, couldn't they take up Iran's offer to abandon its nuclear program if Israel gives up its nukes?
The influence of the [executive] has increased, is increasing, and ought to be diminished.
by lysias on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:24:11 AM PDT
this up...and it falls on deaf ears. We give Israel all the cover it needs.
by mattes on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 09:00:00 AM PDT
But continuing to ignore it when it is the obvious alternative to calls to launch a preemptive war is something else again.
by lysias on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 09:10:57 AM PDT
if their program were only peaceful, as they claim?
Fascism is indistinguishable from any parody thereof.
by mbkennel on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:03:45 PM PDT
There were also arguments like "They can only blame themselves." As usual, it was the fault of the victims. The most creative solution came from the Deputy Minister of Defense, Ephraim Sneh: "The practical responsibility is ours, but the moral responsibility is theirs." If they launch Qassam rockets at us, what else can we do but answer with shells? Ephraim Sneh was raised to the position of Deputy Minister just now. The appointment was a payment for agreeing to the inclusion of Avigdor Liberman in the government (in biblical Hebrew, the payment would have been called "the hire of a whore", Deut. 23,19). Now, after only a few days in office, Sneh was given the opportunity to express his thanks. (In the Sneh family, there is a tradition of justifying despicable acts. Ephraim's brilliant father, Moshe Sneh, was the leader of the Israeli Communist Party, and defended all the massacres committed by Stalin, not only the gulag system, but also the murder of the Jewish Communists in the Soviet Union and its satellites and the Jewish "doctors plot").
In One Word: MASSACRE!
by lysias on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:49:47 AM PDT
Maintaining relationship with Israel is NOT in US best interest.
Time to cut the cord. Unless we want to go to into massive war in middle east because Israel is itching to whack Iran.
by fugue on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:20:51 AM PDT
Won't meet with Palestinians until they "recognize" Israel. Read: we're not interested in Peace.
Dems will not hold impeachment hearings while Bill is campaigning with Hillary.
by annefrank on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:42:11 AM PDT
the same talking points.
by mattes on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 09:00:50 AM PDT
When Hamas says they aren't recognizing Israel that also means (as stated policy) they are committed to its violent destruction and elimination of its Jewish inhabitants.
That isn't exactly being "interested in Peace" either.
by mbkennel on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:05:36 PM PDT
Watch Peace, Propaganda, The Promised Land
by shergald on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:26:21 PM PDT
that's sufficient reason for launching a war? (Wouldn't that rationale have justified the USSR in launching a preemptive strike on the West because too many people were leaving East Germany?)
by lysias on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:23:08 AM PDT
invasion.
And it have NOT been a low profile. I have been watch UN Israeli Ambassador Gillerman for MONTHS pushing the world to respond to Iran. Months.
by mattes on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:57:39 AM PDT
time is not on Israel's side over the long haul if other middle east nations are permitted to develop in peace ...
population growth alone is a key issue ... along with that, there are wealth aggregation considerations ...
nukes? i don't much like proliferation ... certainly no more that the average dkos reader ... but there's little threat from a stable government ... and, while much of the world has elected for an atomic-based energy solution, it's curious, in a cartel-kinda way, to watch an international relations/political attempt to enforce a barrier to market entry ...
"follow the money" still works well when attempting to find motive ... well, that, and "survival of a way of life" ...
by wystler on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:32:43 AM PDT
by LondonYank on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:26:31 PM PDT
The critical point to understand in this diary is that an important motive in the war against Iraq and in a prospective war against Iran is the destruction of any examples of a course of economic development independent from U.S. domination. What distinguished both Iraq and Iran, despite the many odious qualities of both regimes, was that they spent their oil profits on healthcare, education and infrastructure while the other Gulf State regimes invested in luxury hotels, foreign real estate, and U.S. and European stiocks and bonds. Indeed this was the quid pro quo for U.S. military support for these despots.
What this tells us is that all the talk about "democracy" as a motivation for these military adventures is pure unadulterated horseshit. The worst thing in the world from the point of view of the U.S ruling class (which dominates BOTH parties) would be for the peoples of the Middle East to have genuinely democratic control over their affairs because they know that if this were to occur the first order of business would be to redirect the wealth generated from oil back into meeting the needs of their respective societies. What the U.S. wants is the best of both worlds, empty show elections that provide a veneer of legitimacy for compliant regimes that capitulate to the demands of U.S. based banks and corporations for access to cheap labor, cheap material resources and markets.
Sick of candidate diaries? Kasama!"Tell no lies. Claim no easy victories" -- Amilcar Cabral
by Christopher Day on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:59:43 AM PDT
--to quote Gore Vidal.
Aghanistan was about Osamano wait! the Taliban. Nobody dissented when the rationale for locking a country in the dark ages completely changed.
Iraq. WMDS. Al-Qaeda Saddam's a baddie!
It's all bullshit. Even if you're not convinced of the ethical argument that evil people cannot do good even for ostensibly good reasons or achieving results similar to intent, and I myself am not, all of Bush's arguments were phony, not a single presumably 'good' thing he ever spoke of was anything more than a disguise.
Whether the Taliban were ousted, whether Bush's warlord thugs (whom the Taliban popularly overthrew in the south) in the Northern Alliance had been democratic, had the poppy dealers been humanitarian, it all would have been the same to Bush.
He has no noble intentions for Afghanistan. He has none for Iraq. Terrible, terrible things will happen to Iran if we batch up another round of xenophobi and national security panic.
It was not the right war conducted wrongly. There was nothing about the bombings or invasions from the start.
Reichstag fire?
Republicans believe in gvmt. intervention for bankers and investors, I believe in intervention for the meek and lowly -- Nulwee.
by Nulwee on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:27:00 AM PDT
He has no noble intentions for the United States either.
by berko on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:12:07 AM PDT
And look what happened in the Mexican elections. The people's choice was taken down.
by mattes on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 09:02:43 AM PDT
... as good Americans, aren't we all supposed to moan about Daniel Ortega's election in Nicaragua, just like all the editorial pages have been telling us?
by wystler on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:44:36 AM PDT
I can't even believe anyone in our military would be stupid enough to mount any Naval exercise against Iran. Iran has better weapons that Saddam could even dream of having. We're so used to seeing Saddam's sorry assed army driving their vintage vehicles and lobbing scud missiles that we think that's all we would face in Iran. Our entire Navy will be resting on the bottom of the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea within a half hour of any threat to Iranian oil production, sunk by the Sun Burn Cruise Missile.
The entire world just shrug their shoulders and say "Ain't it a crying shame, their arrogance cost them everything", and not stand by us in any form whatsoever. Stupid goddamn arrogant fools we are, I almost wish it would happen sooner than later just to get it over with so we could move on.
by JohnnySacks on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:02:35 PM PDT
perspective as we move away from the worst-case scenario, the "October Surprise" attack we all dreaded, your diary now is richly suggestive and asserts a more plausible set of causes and outcomes than a war born of primarily partisan motives you described before.
We have differed in the past over the central question of how a major war starts. I tried to tell you that the U.S. military today isn't just an instrument of presidential power, but instead ultimately follows its own institutional logic and perceptions of the national interest. The JCS wasn't going to bomb Bushehr for Bush, and won't allow Olmert to start a general Mid-East war, because they know that it's not in the national interest of either the U.S. or Israel. The only sure winners would be Russia and China.
You've done a wonderful job laying out scenarios, and are beginning to acknowledge that that's what they are. As they become less alarmist they're better analysis, and more plausible. This one, in particular, concisely captures the minority position held by some of the left-over neocons, a position articulated by Peters, who is viewed as an extremist. But, keep in mind, Peters expresses a minority position, but one that should be studied by all.
Thanks for publishing this valuable diary.
Regards -
by leveymg on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 05:44:16 AM PDT
improve over time. I'm just a blogger, not a general or oil company chairman or a diplomat. Sometimes fear dominates what I write, sometimes hope. I'm working toward better balance.
by LondonYank on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 05:48:18 AM PDT
in USA who still dream the big loony hegemonist dreams, but they must be in an at least temporary decline now that Iraq is irretrievably lost. Partition of Iraq may not be so much a redrawing of ME maps as an acknowledgement that the West cannot occupy Muslim territory and must reach another accomodation, one that would acknowledge Iranian power.
One wildly optimistic scenario would see a grand settlement that simply accepts Iran's dominance of Shia Iraq and normalized relations in exchange for no nukes on their part. Without the US bogeyman (especially when US lives the part with such obvious relish)Iran might actually moderate towards being a somewhat more secular state. As it stands now, with 150,000 US troops on their border and daily bellicose threats out of Washington, there is no chance of that.
Both outcomes (PNAC lunacy and optimistic as above) are still possible. My fear is less immediate than yours -- it is the next incarnation of unrestrained neo-con government in the USA linked to another terrorist attack. They aren't going away even if they lose in '08 and the theocrats will still control about 25% of the US population.
We have only just begun and none too soon.
by global citizen on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:49:03 AM PDT
removes the artificial borders drawn by Britain and France at the end of World War I and looks very much like a map of the non-Rumelian provinces of the Ottoman Empire-- in other words, of the last embodiment of the Sunni Caliphate. Ironically, Osama bin Laden would LOVE this map; he'd consider it a great start towards revival of the Caliphate, wanting only restoration of a central caliphal authority and territorial expansion across northern Africa and into Andalusia. And who's to say radical Salafists rather than American PNAC pygmies will be the ones to finally succeed in placing these territories under one imperial authority?
As for an attack on Iran, we do need to watch carefully and be ready to sound an early warnings. But it may be less likely now that Israeli military power lost a lot of its credibility in Lebanon and Bush's Iraq "strategy" has been completely discredited. While we shouldn't trust the ultimate motives of the Baker Commission, maybe we should welcome it for now if it really does press the White House to pursue diplomatic reengagement with Iran instead of military confrontation.
This is a useful diary, although I do think it makes one unfair statement in characterizing Israel as an "upstart thief."
by LanceBoyle on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:13:55 AM PDT
doesn't view Israel as such. He was interpreting the views of Ahmedinedjad.
by EuroPerspective on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:49:56 AM PDT
Sorry for being presumtious... :)
by EuroPerspective on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:25:23 AM PDT
argument I made a couple years ago:
http://mboard.rediff.com/board/board.php?boardid=news2004sep27iraq Subject: CIA Iraq Covert Political Plan Aired and Then Axed This is the most absurd thing I've ever heard of! All of the candidates were vetted by the PA. It's like the RNC saying it won't play covert games to determine the outcome of Republican primaries! The choices are utterly proscribed to begin with -- the object being to keep the majority Shi'a clerics from taking immediate control over the central government, where they might actually keep Iraq together in one piece long enought to reunify the country with Iran! You know, those borders are just lines drawn up in the British Foreign Office 90 years ago. For a long time before that it was all the Ottoman Empire. That common identity never really went away. Everyone knows that the game plan is to break Iran up into three more managable pieces -- Shi'a south, Sunni center, and Kurdish north. Each oil exporting region will have its own U.S. controlled pipeline and its own petty tyrant, and some randomizing terrorist groups thrown in to keep everyone off balance. These squabbling potentates will assure the need for an American armed presence for years to come. The British tried to do things more directly -- by putting the larger minority faction in control over the rest. But, that would mean resurrecting the Ba'ath Party by another name. The stuff I read in the major U.S. papers about the "New Iraq" is recycled Pentagon press releases -- it's the Saigon Five O'clock Follies all over again. It's like reading about how Thieu will be more of a democratic leader than Kye, who was more of a democrat than Diem, who was too French and too Catholic. And poor Diem, before Ambassador Harriman offered him "safe passage" and coaxed him to meet his maker inside that armored personnel carrier, he was so much nicer than that wicked Madame Nhu. Big crocodile tears at MACV and CIA. Even if there are elections in January, this has absolutely nothing to do with the warlords who will actually be running all those little warring fiefdoms a year later. M Posted by Mark Levey on 28-SEP-04
http://mboard.rediff.com/board/board.php?boardid=news2004sep27iraq
Subject: CIA Iraq Covert Political Plan Aired and Then Axed
This is the most absurd thing I've ever heard of! All of the candidates were vetted by the PA. It's like the RNC saying it won't play covert games to determine the outcome of Republican primaries!
The choices are utterly proscribed to begin with -- the object being to keep the majority Shi'a clerics from taking immediate control over the central government, where they might actually keep Iraq together in one piece long enought to reunify the country with Iran! You know, those borders are just lines drawn up in the British Foreign Office 90 years ago. For a long time before that it was all the Ottoman Empire. That common identity never really went away.
Everyone knows that the game plan is to break Iran up into three more managable pieces -- Shi'a south, Sunni center, and Kurdish north. Each oil exporting region will have its own U.S. controlled pipeline and its own petty tyrant, and some randomizing terrorist groups thrown in to keep everyone off balance. These squabbling potentates will assure the need for an American armed presence for years to come.
The British tried to do things more directly -- by putting the larger minority faction in control over the rest. But, that would mean resurrecting the Ba'ath Party by another name.
The stuff I read in the major U.S. papers about the "New Iraq" is recycled Pentagon press releases -- it's the Saigon Five O'clock Follies all over again. It's like reading about how Thieu will be more of a democratic leader than Kye, who was more of a democrat than Diem, who was too French and too Catholic. And poor Diem, before Ambassador Harriman offered him "safe passage" and coaxed him to meet his maker inside that armored personnel carrier, he was so much nicer than that wicked Madame Nhu. Big crocodile tears at MACV and CIA.
Even if there are elections in January, this has absolutely nothing to do with the warlords who will actually be running all those little warring fiefdoms a year later.
Posted by Mark Levey on 28-SEP-04
by leveymg on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:28:11 AM PDT
spend some time with the borders that have little or nothing to do with Iraq ... note:
and then there's the Islamic Sacred State ...
it's clear that any attempt to have a sovereign yield territory will require either armed conflict or threat thereon ... this map is a recipe for continued mayhem ...
by wystler on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:53:35 AM PDT
First, bin Laden would not aprove of that map because there are too many states on it - he wants the Caliphate to be unified, not broken up further.
Second, this map is clearly not in the United States' interest. LondonYank obviously hasn't looked at any other maps besides this one. If he had, he would notice that the new Arab Shia State controls most of the oil-producing areas of Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. That's a problem. Never mind the weakening of Turkey's control over key water sources in its eastern territory.
And lest people think the "legit" justification for war is still out there, Iran is still a decade or so away from having the bomb. That means they're still years away from having targets for attack.
Frankly, I'm stunned that this diary was recommended. By anyone. Conspiracy theorist nonsense.
by SGoo on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:38:23 AM PDT
It breaks down post WW 1 nation states created by Europeans into smaller units that are ostensibly more ethnolinguistically homogeneous and happen to correspond more closely to the constituent emirates of the early Caliphate, or the eyalets of the latter Caliphate of the Ottoman sultans: an Iraq divided into Kurdish Mosulistan, Sunni Baghdadistan, Shiite Basrastan, for example; the cession of Waziristan to the Afghani Emirate; etc. These are "natural" provinces of the revived Caliphate. Notice that Shiite Basrastan is separated from Iran, and Iran is forced to cede territory to the Azeri Turks and the Kurds. Bin Laden would love that-- it further tilt in the balance of power, away from Sh'ia.
Peters seems to be assigning additional territory and strategic position atop the Persian Gulf to Basrastan for an entirely different reason, though; he naively thinks Basrastan would remain an American protectorate. Very foolish.
by LanceBoyle on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:36:32 PM PDT
When the drumbeat first started re: attacking Iran, and the rhetoric started to escalate, I was trying to become more familiar with the situation and ended up secure in the knowledge that everyone just needs to leave Iran alone! The possible unintended consequences of such an attack are mindboggling.
I saw Seymour Hersh speak this summer, and he predicted that the Dems would sweep both houses in the elections, and that's when Bush would become really dangerous. He said that he does expect us to bomb Iran, most likely with a nuclear bomb, because Bush has a messianic complex that isn't yet satisfied. Scary.
"Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever." -- Gandhi
by akasha on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:49:52 AM PDT
given who we're dealing with and the theories put forth in this diary for the reasons behind an attack, perhaps "unintended" is not the right word.
by akasha on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:00:58 AM PDT
by mattes on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 09:04:58 AM PDT
just because it's a minority position doesn't preclude the possibility that it will be acted upon. The neocons hardly halda a majority position and yet they did get us into Iraq.
by berko on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:14:59 AM PDT
That sometimes helps.
by Batfish on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:37:19 AM PDT
Yes, it was a nice weekend, wasn't it?
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
by mmcole on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:38:53 AM PDT
his propaganda. Like he said, he does not care who is in power, the American people support him. Well, this diary will show, not all Americans.
Israel has been pushing for a war in Iran for months and months, and the MSM is geared up to take anything coming out of Iran and twisting the words around to justify their agenda. Wake up, before we have another war. And Bushco is now going to start training militias in south america again.
by mattes on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:46:33 AM PDT
you feel passionately about the disaster in the ME. But I think we need to distinguish between Olmert and his fans and 'Israel'. Unlike, Iran, Israel does have free elections and a diverse range of enfranchised political opinion.
That's one reason I'll always support Israel over Iran and any other totalitarian or semi-totalitarian state.
There's plenty not to like about Israel's policies in the ME. But there is a large and significant peace camp in Israel that doesn't get the press it deserves.
And they fight Olmert and his gang day in day out.
by kidneystones on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:51:46 PM PDT
there is a great peace movement in Israel. But unfortunately each day they are disempowered. And I feel the best chance countries like Lebanon and Iran have to become more progressive, is from the insid