You make some good points, and some others I would disagree with.  I may move Arizona ahead of Nevada next week.

You make good points regarding cash-on-hand, and that is the main reason I'll probably switch the two.  Plus, no polls have really come out to confirm the Rasmussen poll that had Carter within 7.  Most seem to have it at about a 20 point gap.

I had not seen the Arizona poll with Pederson within 6.  Do you have a cite?  It sounds like a partisan poll to me.  I'm not including those in my posts although I give them some consideration in rankings (not a lot though).  Although, your point about Nevada not having any polls that close can be refuted by my chart - Rasmussen gave Ensign a 7 point lead only in his last polling of the race (essentially the same as 6 and not a partisan polling outfit).

I definitely have to disagree with your analysis of Virginia though.  Yes, Webb's cash numbers are not strong.  However, those numbers were as of the last filing (June 30) and are likely substantially different, especially because macaca-gate has since erupted.  But even if Webb's cash numbers are still low, you simply can't ignore every poll since macaca-gate showing the race within 5 or closer.  That puts Virginia far ahead of Arizona in competitiveness.  Plus the DSCC has indicated they will put cash into the race.