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Have you checked past results to see if a PVI of 0 correlates with a 10% incumbency loss rate?
Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News
by DavidNYC on Fri Oct 26, 2007 at 09:41:40 PM PDT
[ Parent ]
I think I am about right, but I need to look at more data. In a typical post-World War 2 house election, about 5% of incumbents who run, lose. But I have to look at data for PVI numbers. Most congressmen run in districts that have PVIs favorable to their own party, but I don't know how favorable.
Now up: What are you reading?
by plf515 on Sat Oct 27, 2007 at 04:08:08 AM PDT
It's much truer of Republicans than Democrats. After 2006, only 8 Republicans sit in districts won by Kerry. I think it's 60 Dems in Bush districts.
by DavidNYC on Sat Oct 27, 2007 at 09:10:03 PM PDT
wide narrow
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